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Happy Valley · 2022-03-02 · 19:48

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course A 9 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-03-02 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. ZONE D, ridden by K Teetan and trained by J Size, won by SH, with VIVA HUNTER second and ROYAL BOMB third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.39.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 ZONE D Closed strongly H/P/TT 1.39.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · J Size 6 2.3 SH
2 9 VIVA HUNTER Closed strongly B1 J Moreira · K L Man 3 3.2 SH
3 4 ROYAL BOMB Closed strongly CP/TT A Badel · C Fownes 7 28.0 2
4 7 TOTAL POWER Closed strongly B C L Chau · D J Hall 1 6.9 2-3/4
5 5 SUPER TEN B/XB B Shinn · D J Whyte 4 12.0 3-1/2
6 1 LEAP OF FAITH V Borges · J Size 2 16.0 5-1/4
7 2 HELENE WISDOM STAR Closed strongly CP/H/TT D Moor · A S Cruz 8 47.0 6-1/4
8 8 WORLD FAMOUS V M F Poon · P F Yiu 5 26.0 7
9 3 TRUE LEGEND Led early B Z Purton · F C Lor 9 11.0 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ZONE D2. VIVA HUNTER+0.1L3. ROYAL BOMB+2L4. TOTAL POWER+2.75L5. SUPER TEN+3.5L6. LEAP OF FAITH+5.25L7. HELENE WISDOM STAR+6.25L8. WORLD FAMOUS+7L9. TRUE LEGEND+12.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick VIVA HUNTER (30.3%) finished 2nd — the winner ZONE D was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 VIVA HUNTER 30.3% 3.30 2
2 3 TRUE LEGEND 18.7% 5.36 9
3 7 TOTAL POWER 14.6% 6.87 4
4 6 ZONE D 14.4% 6.92 1
5 5 SUPER TEN 8.4% 11.88 5
6 1 LEAP OF FAITH 5.2% 19.07 6
7 8 WORLD FAMOUS 3.5% 28.50 8
8 4 ROYAL BOMB 3.5% 28.81 3
9 2 HELENE WISDOM STAR 1.4% 69.27 7
VIVA HUNTERTRUE LEGENDTOTAL POWERZONE D — wonSUPER TENLEAP OF FAITHWORLD FAMOUSROYAL BOMBHELENE WISDOM STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 23

PLACE

4 59

6 11.5

9 15

QUINELLA

6,9 39.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 130.5

4,9 138

6,9 18

FORECAST

6,9 73

TIERCE

6,9,4 995

TRIO

4,6,9 291

FIRST 4

4,6,7,9 300

QUARTET

6,9,4,7 3,835

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

6/6 87.5

6/9 30.5

3 PICK 1

A1 13.5

A3

A2