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Happy Valley · 2022-03-02 · 22:17

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2022-03-02 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. NICCONI COUNTY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C Fownes, won by SH, with NOTHING NEW second and ATULLIBIGEAL third. The 3.3 favourite NOTHING NEW finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.25
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 NICCONI COUNTY TT1 1.10.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C Fownes 3 4.8 SH
2 10 NOTHING NEW H/P/XB A Badel · D J Whyte 4 3.3 SH
3 3 ATULLIBIGEAL H/XB Z Purton · D J Hall 12 10.0 HD
4 9 WOOD ON FIRE H/V/TT M F Poon · L Ho 9 58.0 1-1/2
5 12 SMART IDEA H/TT H Bentley · F C Lor 11 21.0 2-1/4
6 5 SUPER DOBBIN B A Hamelin · A T Millard 2 15.0 2-3/4
7 2 DIAMOND BRILLIANT TT K C Leung · T P Yung 1 17.0 3-1/2
8 4 HIGH RISE SOLDIER PC B Shinn · K W Lui 7 27.0 4-3/4
9 6 NAMJONG SINGS B C L Chau · C S Shum 5 13.0 5-1/4
10 11 FORTE XB/TT D Moor · D A Hayes 6 7.4 5-3/4
11 7 A SMILE LIKE YOURS J Moreira · J Size 8 7.6 6-1/4
12 1 DECISIVE TWELVE TT C Y Ho · W Y So 10 21.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NICCONI COUNTY2. NOTHING NEW+0.1L3. ATULLIBIGEAL+0.2L4. WOOD ON FIRE+1.5L5. SMART IDEA+2.25L6. SUPER DOBBIN+2.75L7. DIAMOND BRILLIANT+3.5L8. HIGH RISE SOLDIER+4.75L9. NAMJONG SINGS+5.25L10. FORTE+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick A SMILE LIKE YOURS (15.4%) finished 11th — the winner NICCONI COUNTY was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 A SMILE LIKE YOURS 15.4% 6.48 11
2 10 NOTHING NEW 15.1% 6.63 2
3 11 FORTE 14.9% 6.71 10
4 6 NAMJONG SINGS 11.3% 8.82 9
5 4 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 7.8% 12.89 8
6 12 SMART IDEA 7.1% 14.14 5
7 2 DIAMOND BRILLIANT 5.9% 17.04 7
8 3 ATULLIBIGEAL 5.7% 17.61 3
9 8 NICCONI COUNTY 5.4% 18.46 1
10 5 SUPER DOBBIN 5.0% 19.86 6
11 1 DECISIVE TWELVE 4.3% 23.28 12
12 9 WOOD ON FIRE 2.1% 47.04 4
A SMILE LIKE YOURSNOTHING NEWFORTENAMJONG SINGSHIGH RISE SOLDIERSMART IDEADIAMOND BRILLIANTATULLIBIGEALNICCONI COUNTY — wonSUPER DOBBINDECISIVE TWELVEWOOD ON FIRE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 48

PLACE

3 42.5

8 18.5

10 16

QUINELLA

8,10 99.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 143.5

3,10 88.5

8,10 42.5

FORECAST

8,10 160

TIERCE

8,10,3 2,307

TRIO

3,8,10 508

FIRST 4

3,8,9,10 3,679

QUARTET

8,10,3,9 48,313

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 24.5

A3

A1

7TH DOUBLE

12/8 162

12/10 19.5