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Sha Tin · 2022-03-06 · 13:01

Race 1

Class 1 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 6 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-06 was Class 1 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. WILL POWER, ridden by B Shinn and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-1/4, with RED DESERT second and CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.37.99
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 WILL POWER Closed strongly XB 1.37.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · D J Whyte 6 2.5 1-1/4
2 6 RED DESERT Closed strongly K Teetan · J Size 3 6.4 1-1/4
3 2 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT Closed strongly CP/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 4 3.4 1-1/4
4 5 TELECOM FIGHTERS C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 2 10.0 2-3/4
5 3 KINGS SHIELD Led early CP-/B1 K C Leung · F C Lor 1 11.0 12
6 4 HONGKONG GREAT B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 5 5.3 ML

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WILL POWER2. RED DESERT+1.25L3. CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT+1.25L4. TELECOM FIGHTERS+2.75L5. KINGS SHIELD+12L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT (41.3%) finished 3rd — the winner WILL POWER was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT 41.3% 2.42 3
2 4 HONGKONG GREAT 20.8% 4.81 6
3 6 RED DESERT 14.0% 7.17 2
4 5 TELECOM FIGHTERS 11.9% 8.43 4
5 1 WILL POWER 8.3% 11.98 1
6 3 KINGS SHIELD 3.8% 26.29 5
CALIFORNIADEEPSHOTHONGKONG GREATRED DESERTTELECOM FIGHTERSWILL POWER — wonKINGS SHIELD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 25.5

PLACE

1 13.5

6 30.5

QUINELLA

1,6 89

FORECAST

1,6 134

TIERCE

1,6,2 299

TRIO

1,2,6 65

FIRST 4

1,2,5,6 48

QUARTET

1,6,2,5 981