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Sha Tin · 2022-03-06 · 14:32

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-06 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TELECOM MISSILE, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C Fownes, won by NOSE, with NOBLE BOYZ second and BEAUTY CHEERS third. The 2.6 favourite NOBLE BOYZ finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 TELECOM MISSILE B/TT 1.10.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C Fownes 4 5.5 NOSE
2 2 NOBLE BOYZ SR/TT Z Purton · D J Whyte 2 2.6 NOSE
3 5 BEAUTY CHEERS V Borges · J Size 1 10.0 1
4 8 DRAGON KINGDOM B- K C Leung · Y S Tsui 10 15.0 1-3/4
5 1 HAPPY TIME TT K H Chan · C H Yip 12 20.0 1-3/4
6 4 TOWARDS SUCCESS TT H W Lai · W Y So 8 14.0 2
7 12 VECTOR B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 6 10.0 2-1/4
8 11 SUPER FLAMES TT M L Yeung · L Ho 11 67.0 2-3/4
9 6 BOYS PARTY B/XB R Maia · A T Millard 9 15.0 3
10 7 ALLOY KING CP A Hamelin · K H Ting 3 6.8 3
11 3 SHENRON TT C L Chau · D A Hayes 7 40.0 3-1/4
12 10 OURGOLDENRULES B-/XB- H T Mo · C W Chang 5 76.0 5-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TELECOM MISSILE2. NOBLE BOYZ+0.05L3. BEAUTY CHEERS+1L4. DRAGON KINGDOM+1.75L5. HAPPY TIME+1.75L6. TOWARDS SUCCESS+2L7. VECTOR+2.25L8. SUPER FLAMES+2.75L9. BOYS PARTY+3L10. ALLOY KING+3L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick NOBLE BOYZ (21.3%) finished 2nd — the winner TELECOM MISSILE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 NOBLE BOYZ 21.3% 4.69 2
2 7 ALLOY KING 15.0% 6.65 10
3 9 TELECOM MISSILE 13.0% 7.69 1
4 5 BEAUTY CHEERS 11.6% 8.59 3
5 3 SHENRON 8.2% 12.25 11
6 12 VECTOR 7.3% 13.66 7
7 4 TOWARDS SUCCESS 6.2% 16.01 6
8 6 BOYS PARTY 5.8% 17.30 9
9 1 HAPPY TIME 4.7% 21.21 5
10 10 OURGOLDENRULES 2.3% 42.83 12
11 11 SUPER FLAMES 2.3% 44.13 8
12 8 DRAGON KINGDOM 2.2% 45.78 4
NOBLE BOYZALLOY KINGTELECOM MISSILE — wonBEAUTY CHEERSSHENRONVECTORTOWARDS SUCCESSBOYS PARTYHAPPY TIMEOURGOLDENRULESSUPER FLAMESDRAGON KINGDOM

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 55.5

PLACE

2 15

5 31

9 19

QUINELLA

2,9 86.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 56

2,9 36.5

5,9 89.5

FORECAST

9,2 203

TIERCE

9,2,5 1,155

TRIO

2,5,9 193

FIRST 4

2,5,8,9 1,083

QUARTET

9,2,5,8 17,471

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

4,6,8/2,5,9 386,720

3 PICK 1

A2 29

A1

A3

3RD DOUBLE

6/2 649

6/9 7,820