Sha Tin · 2022-03-06 · 14:32
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-06 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. TELECOM MISSILE, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C Fownes, won by NOSE, with NOBLE BOYZ second and BEAUTY CHEERS third. The 2.6 favourite NOBLE BOYZ finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | TELECOM MISSILE B/TT 1.10.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 4 | 5.5 | NOSE |
| 2 | 2 | NOBLE BOYZ SR/TT Z Purton · D J Whyte | Z Purton | D J Whyte | 2 | 2.6 | NOSE |
| 3 | 5 | BEAUTY CHEERS V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 1 | 10.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 8 | DRAGON KINGDOM B- K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 10 | 15.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | HAPPY TIME TT K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 12 | 20.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 4 | TOWARDS SUCCESS TT H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 8 | 14.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 12 | VECTOR B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 6 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | SUPER FLAMES TT M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 11 | 67.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | BOYS PARTY B/XB R Maia · A T Millard | R Maia | A T Millard | 9 | 15.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | ALLOY KING CP A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 3 | 6.8 | 3 |
| 11 | 3 | SHENRON TT C L Chau · D A Hayes | C L Chau | D A Hayes | 7 | 40.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | OURGOLDENRULES B-/XB- H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 5 | 76.0 | 5-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | NOBLE BOYZ | 21.3% | 4.69 | 2 |
| 2 | 7 | ALLOY KING | 15.0% | 6.65 | 10 |
| 3 | 9 | TELECOM MISSILE | 13.0% | 7.69 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | BEAUTY CHEERS | 11.6% | 8.59 | 3 |
| 5 | 3 | SHENRON | 8.2% | 12.25 | 11 |
| 6 | 12 | VECTOR | 7.3% | 13.66 | 7 |
| 7 | 4 | TOWARDS SUCCESS | 6.2% | 16.01 | 6 |
| 8 | 6 | BOYS PARTY | 5.8% | 17.30 | 9 |
| 9 | 1 | HAPPY TIME | 4.7% | 21.21 | 5 |
| 10 | 10 | OURGOLDENRULES | 2.3% | 42.83 | 12 |
| 11 | 11 | SUPER FLAMES | 2.3% | 44.13 | 8 |
| 12 | 8 | DRAGON KINGDOM | 2.2% | 45.78 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 55.5
PLACE
2 15
5 31
9 19
QUINELLA
2,9 86.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 56
2,9 36.5
5,9 89.5
FORECAST
9,2 203
TIERCE
9,2,5 1,155
TRIO
2,5,9 193
FIRST 4
2,5,8,9 1,083
QUARTET
9,2,5,8 17,471
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,6,8/2,5,9 386,720
3 PICK 1
A2 29
A1 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
6/2 649
6/9 7,820