Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2022-03-06 · 15:03

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-06 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SMILING COLLECTOR, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by K H Ting, won by HD, with HAPPY FOREVER second and HAPPY TANGO third. The 4.1 favourite SALUTATION finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 SMILING COLLECTOR SR1 1.09.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · K H Ting 11 5.0 HD
2 5 HAPPY FOREVER XB/TT1 R Maia · K L Man 6 45.0 HD
3 9 HAPPY TANGO B2 J Moreira · Y S Tsui 12 25.0 3/4
4 2 MY ECSTATIC TT Z Purton · F C Lor 5 6.4 1-1/4
5 12 SALUTATION P1 K Teetan · J Size 1 4.1 1-1/2
6 3 PLEASANT ENDEAVOR B-/CP2 K C Leung · P F Yiu 8 7.8 2
7 8 STARRY NIGHT D Moor · D A Hayes 4 7.3 2-3/4
8 1 MARADO C L Chau · P O'Sullivan 9 7.2 3
9 6 SIXTH GENERATION B Shinn · C H Yip 10 11.0 3-1/4
10 4 GET THE MONIES C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 23.0 4-1/2
11 11 CALL ME LU TT V Borges · W Y So 2 73.0 5-3/4
12 10 COOLCELEB B/TT H T Mo · T P Yung 7 93.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SMILING COLLECTOR2. HAPPY FOREVER+0.2L3. HAPPY TANGO+0.75L4. MY ECSTATIC+1.25L5. SALUTATION+1.5L6. PLEASANT ENDEAVOR+2L7. STARRY NIGHT+2.75L8. MARADO+3L9. SIXTH GENERATION+3.25L10. GET THE MONIES+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SALUTATION (21.0%) finished 5th — the winner SMILING COLLECTOR was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 SALUTATION 21.0% 4.77 5
2 2 MY ECSTATIC 19.5% 5.13 4
3 1 MARADO 15.3% 6.56 8
4 3 PLEASANT ENDEAVOR 11.8% 8.48 6
5 9 HAPPY TANGO 8.1% 12.30 3
6 6 SIXTH GENERATION 7.4% 13.55 9
7 4 GET THE MONIES 7.1% 14.15 10
8 8 STARRY NIGHT 3.5% 28.52 7
9 7 SMILING COLLECTOR 2.5% 39.44 1
10 10 COOLCELEB 1.7% 58.72 12
11 11 CALL ME LU 1.3% 77.74 11
12 5 HAPPY FOREVER 0.9% 113.74 2
SALUTATIONMY ECSTATICMARADOPLEASANT ENDEAVORHAPPY TANGOSIXTH GENERATIONGET THE MONIESSTARRY NIGHTSMILING COLLECTOR — wonCOOLCELEBCALL ME LUHAPPY FOREVER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 50.5

PLACE

5 89

7 20.5

9 68.5

QUINELLA

5,7 1,393

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 403

5,9 696

7,9 292.5

FORECAST

7,5 2,143

TIERCE

7,5,9 35,486

TRIO

5,7,9 10,980

FIRST 4

2,5,7,9 10,507

QUARTET

7,5,9,2 276,751

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 17

A1

4TH DOUBLE

9/5 620

9/7 555