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Sha Tin · 2022-03-06 · 16:38

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course C 12 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-06 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. LEADING FORTUNE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by N, with BEAUTY LIVE second and PRECISE EXPRESS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.5 favourite BEAUTY LIVE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.35.31
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 LEADING FORTUNE Closed strongly B 1.35.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size 1 5.1 N
2 6 BEAUTY LIVE Led early TT J Moreira · F C Lor 5 1.5 N
3 11 PRECISE EXPRESS Closed strongly H/TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 6 15.0 1-3/4
4 3 COPARTNER ELITES Closed strongly TT1 C Y Ho · C S Shum 4 14.0 2-1/2
5 7 VICTORY PARK Closed strongly B/TT1 K Teetan · D J Whyte 8 84.0 2-3/4
6 12 SACRED IBIS Closed strongly XB R Maia · A T Millard 10 25.0 3
7 5 FIVE G PATCH Closed strongly TT1 H Bentley · A S Cruz 9 59.0 3
8 10 LUCKY GOLD B/H D Moor · K W Lui 2 85.0 3-1/4
9 1 ODE TO JOY B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 3 15.0 3-3/4
10 4 HAPPY ANGEL CP H W Lai · D A Hayes 11 184.0 5-3/4
11 2 ENTRUSTED Closed strongly CP/TT B Shinn · W Y So 12 70.0 6
12 8 PERFECT TO GREAT B1 L Ferraris · C Fownes 7 22.0 7

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LEADING FORTUNE2. BEAUTY LIVE+0.05L3. PRECISE EXPRESS+1.75L4. COPARTNER ELITES+2.5L5. VICTORY PARK+2.75L6. SACRED IBIS+3L7. FIVE G PATCH+3L8. LUCKY GOLD+3.25L9. ODE TO JOY+3.75L10. HAPPY ANGEL+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick BEAUTY LIVE (42.8%) finished 2nd — the winner LEADING FORTUNE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 BEAUTY LIVE 42.8% 2.33 2
2 9 LEADING FORTUNE 23.9% 4.18 1
3 8 PERFECT TO GREAT 7.8% 12.79 12
4 11 PRECISE EXPRESS 6.2% 16.23 3
5 1 ODE TO JOY 4.8% 20.79 9
6 12 SACRED IBIS 3.4% 29.36 6
7 2 ENTRUSTED 3.2% 30.83 11
8 5 FIVE G PATCH 2.9% 34.39 7
9 3 COPARTNER ELITES 2.5% 39.53 4
10 10 LUCKY GOLD 1.1% 90.14 8
11 7 VICTORY PARK 0.8% 122.01 5
12 4 HAPPY ANGEL 0.4% 229.64 10
BEAUTY LIVELEADING FORTUNE — wonPERFECT TO GREATPRECISE EXPRESSODE TO JOYSACRED IBISENTRUSTEDFIVE G PATCHCOPARTNER ELITESLUCKY GOLDVICTORY PARKHAPPY ANGEL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 51

PLACE

6 10.1

9 16

11 33

QUINELLA

6,9 28

QUINELLA PLACE

6,9 16.5

6,11 36.5

9,11 63

FORECAST

9,6 146

TIERCE

9,6,11 515

TRIO

6,9,11 82

FIRST 4

3,6,9,11 120

QUARTET

9,6,11,3 3,227

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 30.5

7TH DOUBLE

10/6 12.5

10/9 186.5