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Sha Tin · 2022-03-06 · 16:08

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course C 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-03-06 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. FREE FOAL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 2-1/4, with STAR CONTACT second and COPARTNER ERA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.35.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 FREE FOAL Closed strongly CP 1.35.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 5 3.4 2-1/4
2 5 STAR CONTACT Closed strongly B/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes 7 6.4 2-1/4
3 4 COPARTNER ERA Closed strongly B V Borges · W Y So 2 10.0 3
4 8 TOYCOON Closed strongly CP C L Chau · P F Yiu 14 14.0 3
5 13 RING BELLS Closed strongly B/XB R Maia · R Gibson 13 10.0 3
6 6 VOYAGE STAR Led early V/TT H Bentley · T P Yung 12 17.0 3-1/4
7 14 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE Closed strongly K Teetan · C W Chang 10 27.0 3-1/2
8 3 DECISIVE ACTION Closed strongly CP/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 6 17.0 4-1/2
9 9 CIRCUIT ELITE B-/TT H T Mo · A S Cruz 9 53.0 5
10 11 NICHOLSON RETURNS B M F Poon · D J Hall 8 21.0 5-1/4
11 1 BLISSFUL LIFE TT K C Leung · K L Man 3 47.0 5-1/4
12 12 EL JEFE Closed strongly B/XB J Moreira · C H Yip 11 8.2 5-1/4
13 2 NEARLY FINE TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 4 7.3 5-3/4
14 7 LUCK STAR H1 H W Lai · Y S Tsui 1 117.0 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FREE FOAL2. STAR CONTACT+2.25L3. COPARTNER ERA+3L4. TOYCOON+3L5. RING BELLS+3L6. VOYAGE STAR+3.25L7. PRESIDENT'S CHOICE+3.5L8. DECISIVE ACTION+4.5L9. CIRCUIT ELITE+5L10. NICHOLSON RETURNS+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick NEARLY FINE (19.7%) finished 13th — the winner FREE FOAL was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 NEARLY FINE 19.7% 5.08 13
2 10 FREE FOAL 19.1% 5.25 1
3 12 EL JEFE 11.6% 8.65 12
4 5 STAR CONTACT 9.4% 10.65 2
5 6 VOYAGE STAR 7.3% 13.70 6
6 4 COPARTNER ERA 6.2% 16.13 3
7 13 RING BELLS 5.7% 17.67 5
8 8 TOYCOON 5.0% 19.81 4
9 14 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 4.3% 23.04 7
10 11 NICHOLSON RETURNS 3.5% 28.38 10
11 1 BLISSFUL LIFE 2.9% 34.43 11
12 3 DECISIVE ACTION 2.9% 35.00 8
13 9 CIRCUIT ELITE 1.9% 51.45 9
14 7 LUCK STAR 0.5% 187.83 14
NEARLY FINEFREE FOAL — wonEL JEFESTAR CONTACTVOYAGE STARCOPARTNER ERARING BELLSTOYCOONPRESIDENT'S CHOICENICHOLSON RETURNSBLISSFUL LIFEDECISIVE ACTIONCIRCUIT ELITELUCK STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 34

PLACE

4 29

5 25.5

10 14.5

QUINELLA

5,10 111.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 90

4,10 71.5

5,10 47

FORECAST

10,5 243

TIERCE

10,5,4 1,082

TRIO

4,5,10 248

FIRST 4

4,5,8,10 1,286

QUARTET

10,5,4,8 16,320

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,8,11/4,5,10 3,288

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 24

6TH DOUBLE

4/5 51.5

4/10 245.5