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Happy Valley · 2022-03-23 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD TO YIELDING 2200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-03-23 was Class 5 over 2200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. SKY GEM, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with JOLLY FOREVER second and FORTUNE TRIPLE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.0 favourite JOLLY FOREVER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 2.17.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 SKY GEM Closed strongly B- 2.17.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes 6 13.0 N
2 6 JOLLY FOREVER Closed strongly XB/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 4 5.0 N
3 11 FORTUNE TRIPLE Closed strongly B- D Moor · Y S Tsui 7 23.0 N
4 2 WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B/XB/TT1 K Teetan · D J Whyte 10 11.0 1
5 1 FLASH FAMOUS B/TT Z Purton · C H Yip 1 6.4 1-1/4
6 5 FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/H/XB R Maia · A T Millard 8 8.1 2
7 10 GREAT TIMES Closed strongly B L Hewitson · D J Hall 12 18.0 2-1/4
8 12 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE B M L Yeung · K H Ting 2 7.8 5-3/4
9 4 TRAVEL GLORY B B Shinn · Y S Tsui 3 11.0 6
10 7 WAH MAY LUCK B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 5 7.6 8
11 3 ALL BEST FRIENDS B- K C Leung · K L Man 9 67.0 26-3/4
12 9 GRAND POWER Led early J Moreira · C W Chang 11 8.6 35-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SKY GEM2. JOLLY FOREVER+0.05L3. FORTUNE TRIPLE+0.05L4. WONDER YEARS+1L5. FLASH FAMOUS+1.25L6. FORTUNE PATROL+2L7. GREAT TIMES+2.25L8. WEALTHY EMPLOYEE+5.75L9. TRAVEL GLORY+6L10. WAH MAY LUCK+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick FLASH FAMOUS (25.2%) finished 5th — the winner SKY GEM was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 FLASH FAMOUS 25.2% 3.96 5
2 7 WAH MAY LUCK 13.5% 7.41 10
3 9 GRAND POWER 12.3% 8.15 12
4 4 TRAVEL GLORY 11.0% 9.13 9
5 6 JOLLY FOREVER 9.1% 10.95 2
6 2 WONDER YEARS 7.0% 14.34 4
7 12 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 6.6% 15.09 8
8 5 FORTUNE PATROL 4.7% 21.21 6
9 8 SKY GEM 4.3% 23.44 1
10 10 GREAT TIMES 2.6% 37.83 7
11 11 FORTUNE TRIPLE 2.4% 42.25 3
12 3 ALL BEST FRIENDS 1.3% 76.17 11
FLASH FAMOUSWAH MAY LUCKGRAND POWERTRAVEL GLORYJOLLY FOREVERWONDER YEARSWEALTHY EMPLOYEEFORTUNE PATROLSKY GEM — wonGREAT TIMESFORTUNE TRIPLEALL BEST FRIENDS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 133

PLACE

6 22

8 41

11 67.5

QUINELLA

6,8 356.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 114

6,11 264.5

8,11 496

FORECAST

8,6 851

TIERCE

8,6,11 21,226

TRIO

6,8,11 2,661

FIRST 4

2,6,8,11 7,803

QUARTET

8,6,11,2 181,726

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 20.5