Happy Valley · 2022-03-23 · 20:46
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-03-23 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on YIELDING going. LUCKY MISSILE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by D J Hall, won by 1, with E LEGEND second and FEARLESS FIRE third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 4.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | LUCKY MISSILE Wire to wire CP 1.41.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · D J Hall | J Moreira | D J Hall | 10 | 4.1 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | E LEGEND Closed strongly M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 3 | 18.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | FEARLESS FIRE Closed strongly XB B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 11 | 15.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | VIVA POPCORN Closed strongly H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 5 | 4.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | NIMBLE NIMBUS Closed strongly CP/XB M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 6 | 7.2 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | GLORIOUS LOVER Closed strongly B-/V1 K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 7 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 10 | FAITHFUL TRINITY H/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 1 | 6.2 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | OUR CREED V L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 4 | 23.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 11 | COURAGEOUS KNIGHT B/TT M Chadwick · C S Shum | M Chadwick | C S Shum | 9 | 24.0 | 10 |
| 10 | 3 | FARSHAD Closed strongly CP C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 8 | 33.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 11 | 8 | WIN CHARM TT A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 2 | 9.3 | 13-3/4 |
| — | 4 | ICE LEGEND H Bentley · T P Yung | H Bentley | T P Yung | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | LUCKY MISSILE | 23.2% | 4.31 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | VIVA POPCORN | 20.8% | 4.81 | 4 |
| 3 | 5 | NIMBLE NIMBUS | 15.2% | 6.58 | 5 |
| 4 | 10 | FAITHFUL TRINITY | 9.7% | 10.32 | 7 |
| 5 | 8 | WIN CHARM | 8.8% | 11.39 | 11 |
| 6 | 11 | COURAGEOUS KNIGHT | 6.4% | 15.74 | 9 |
| 7 | 6 | GLORIOUS LOVER | 5.5% | 18.04 | 6 |
| 8 | 9 | E LEGEND | 3.9% | 25.64 | 2 |
| 9 | 7 | OUR CREED | 2.6% | 38.91 | 8 |
| 10 | 1 | FEARLESS FIRE | 2.5% | 39.58 | 3 |
| 11 | 3 | FARSHAD | 1.5% | 67.54 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 41
PLACE
1 47
9 53.5
12 15
QUINELLA
9,12 342
QUINELLA PLACE
1,9 317.5
1,12 121
9,12 111.5
FORECAST
12,9 593
TIERCE
12,9,1 5,948
TRIO
1,9,12 1,819
FIRST 4
1,2,9,12 1,756
QUARTET
12,9,1,2 40,738
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,10,12/F 42,568
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 21
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE
2/4,12 535.5
2/9 205