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Happy Valley · 2022-03-23 · 20:17

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-03-23 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. WILD WEST WING, ridden by V Borges and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with EUROMISSILE second and HERCULES third. The 2.3 favourite COLONEL finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.10.87
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 WILD WEST WING 1.10.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · J Size 1 10.0 3/4
2 12 EUROMISSILE B/H/XB M L Yeung · C W Chang 7 116.0 3/4
3 10 HERCULES XB/B2/TT K Teetan · C H Yip 9 13.0 1
4 7 JOYFUL GENIUS CP L Ferraris · D J Hall 10 6.7 1-3/4
5 3 HAPPY TANGO B J Moreira · Y S Tsui 5 8.3 2
6 11 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 3 6.7 2-3/4
7 9 HAPPY GATHERING B M Chadwick · K L Man 2 9.1 3-1/4
8 6 HARRIER JET B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 11 35.0 4-1/4
9 4 ENCORE TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 12 93.0 4-1/2
10 1 COLONEL Z Purton · P F Yiu 4 2.3 5-1/2
11 5 QUORUM B/TT R Maia · R Gibson 8 114.0 6-1/2
12 8 AHEAD A HEAD B D Moor · T P Yung 6 36.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WILD WEST WING2. EUROMISSILE+0.75L3. HERCULES+1L4. JOYFUL GENIUS+1.75L5. HAPPY TANGO+2L6. TAKE WHAT YOU NEED+2.75L7. HAPPY GATHERING+3.25L8. HARRIER JET+4.25L9. ENCORE+4.5L10. COLONEL+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick COLONEL (28.9%) finished 10th — the winner WILD WEST WING was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 COLONEL 28.9% 3.46 10
2 7 JOYFUL GENIUS 12.7% 7.89 4
3 3 HAPPY TANGO 12.0% 8.35 5
4 2 WILD WEST WING 9.4% 10.68 1
5 10 HERCULES 9.3% 10.77 3
6 9 HAPPY GATHERING 8.7% 11.48 7
7 11 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED 8.0% 12.52 6
8 8 AHEAD A HEAD 3.6% 27.42 12
9 6 HARRIER JET 3.5% 28.87 8
10 12 EUROMISSILE 2.3% 44.02 2
11 5 QUORUM 0.9% 108.28 11
12 4 ENCORE 0.8% 129.05 9
COLONELJOYFUL GENIUSHAPPY TANGOWILD WEST WING — wonHERCULESHAPPY GATHERINGTAKE WHAT YOU NEEDAHEAD A HEADHARRIER JETEUROMISSILEQUORUMENCORE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 100

PLACE

2 27

10 33

12 205

QUINELLA

2,12 5,246.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,10 162

2,12 1,445.5

10,12 1,769

FORECAST

2,12 9,500

TIERCE

2,12,10 122,850

TRIO

2,10,12 22,812

FIRST 4

2,7,10,12 18,677

QUARTET

2,12,10,7 706,424

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 34

A1

3RD DOUBLE

2/2 585

2/12 1,529.5