Happy Valley · 2022-03-23 · 22:18
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2022-03-23 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on YIELDING going. LUCKY SWEYNESSE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K L Man, won by 1/2, with CALIFORNIA REDWOOD second and FLAMING PASSION third. Victory came as the 1.4 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE 1.10.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 8 | 1.4 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 10 | CALIFORNIA REDWOOD TT1 D Moor · A S Cruz | D Moor | A S Cruz | 4 | 54.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | FLAMING PASSION TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 6 | 7.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 2 | TORONADO PHANTOM TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 12 | 6.7 | 4-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | SUNSET WATCH TT2 M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 1 | 48.0 | 6 |
| 6 | 6 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER PC C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 55.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | MERIDIAN GENIUS R Maia · A T Millard | R Maia | A T Millard | 2 | 9.9 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 1 | ROMAN TURBO SR B Shinn · C S Shum | B Shinn | C S Shum | 10 | 33.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | PRIDE OF EIGHT M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 3 | 101.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | DUBLIN STAR B/TT H Bentley · K L Man | H Bentley | K L Man | 11 | 97.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | GLORIOUS STARLIGHT L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 5 | 105.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 3 | DIAMOND BRILLIANT V2/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 7 | 85.0 | 10-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE | 48.0% | 2.08 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | TORONADO PHANTOM | 19.9% | 5.03 | 4 |
| 3 | 11 | FLAMING PASSION | 7.9% | 12.68 | 3 |
| 4 | 7 | MERIDIAN GENIUS | 7.0% | 14.22 | 7 |
| 5 | 1 | ROMAN TURBO | 3.9% | 25.94 | 8 |
| 6 | 6 | HIGH RISE SOLDIER | 3.7% | 26.85 | 6 |
| 7 | 3 | DIAMOND BRILLIANT | 3.5% | 28.90 | 12 |
| 8 | 9 | SUNSET WATCH | 2.3% | 42.94 | 5 |
| 9 | 12 | DUBLIN STAR | 1.7% | 58.87 | 10 |
| 10 | 10 | CALIFORNIA REDWOOD | 1.2% | 85.15 | 2 |
| 11 | 8 | PRIDE OF EIGHT | 0.6% | 157.84 | 9 |
| 12 | 4 | GLORIOUS STARLIGHT | 0.4% | 281.88 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 14.5
PLACE
5 10.5
10 93
11 17
QUINELLA
5,10 349.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,10 136
5,11 21.5
10,11 276.5
FORECAST
5,10 551
TIERCE
5,10,11 2,300
TRIO
5,10,11 394
FIRST 4
2,5,10,11 465
QUARTET
5,10,11,2 8,999
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 14.5
A3 —
A2 —
7TH DOUBLE
12/5 140.5
12/10 658.5