Sha Tin · 2022-04-03 · 17:53
Race 10
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-03 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ROCK YA HEART, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with FIVE ELEMENTS second and KING LAND third. The 2.6 favourite SUPER FORTUNE finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | ROCK YA HEART TT1 1.08.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K W Lui | M Chadwick | K W Lui | 3 | 5.0 | N |
| 2 | 5 | FIVE ELEMENTS B B Shinn · F C Lor | B Shinn | F C Lor | 11 | 5.5 | N |
| 3 | 1 | KING LAND C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 7 | 106.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | PINS PRINCE H/P/TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 10 | 9.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | PRINCE ALEX SR1 C Y Ho · D J Whyte | C Y Ho | D J Whyte | 8 | 29.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | REVE PARISIEN M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan | M L Yeung | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 138.0 | 2 |
| 7 | 4 | ATULLIBIGEAL H/XB Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 4 | 5.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | SUPER FORTUNE TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 1 | 2.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | COMING PATCH CP1/H1 H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 5 | 85.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | WAR OF COURAGE B K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 6 | 12.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 3 | TEAM SPIRIT B/TT K H Chan · W Y So | K H Chan | W Y So | 9 | 79.0 | 46-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SUPER FORTUNE | 35.2% | 2.84 | 8 |
| 2 | 9 | PINS PRINCE | 16.9% | 5.92 | 4 |
| 3 | 4 | ATULLIBIGEAL | 13.9% | 7.19 | 7 |
| 4 | 2 | ROCK YA HEART | 11.9% | 8.38 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | FIVE ELEMENTS | 8.1% | 12.35 | 2 |
| 6 | 11 | WAR OF COURAGE | 4.3% | 23.08 | 10 |
| 7 | 1 | KING LAND | 3.0% | 33.78 | 3 |
| 8 | 6 | PRINCE ALEX | 2.6% | 38.90 | 5 |
| 9 | 8 | COMING PATCH | 1.7% | 59.79 | 9 |
| 10 | 3 | TEAM SPIRIT | 1.6% | 61.20 | 11 |
| 11 | 10 | REVE PARISIEN | 0.8% | 119.55 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 50.5
PLACE
1 132
2 16
5 20
QUINELLA
2,5 213
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 392.5
1,5 613
2,5 62.5
FORECAST
2,5 321
TIERCE
2,5,1 8,736
TRIO
1,2,5 3,196
FIRST 4
1,2,5,9 3,869
QUARTET
2,5,1,9 63,630
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 20.5
A1 —
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,8/1,2,5 146,039
9TH DOUBLE
1/2 50.5
1/5 16.5
SIX UP
1,7/3,11/1,7/11,13/1,3/2,5 2,697
7/3/1/13/1/2 13,211
2 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
13/1/2 491
13/1/5 138