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Sha Tin · 2022-04-03 · 17:53

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 11 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-03 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ROCK YA HEART, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with FIVE ELEMENTS second and KING LAND third. The 2.6 favourite SUPER FORTUNE finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.08.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 ROCK YA HEART TT1 1.08.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · K W Lui 3 5.0 N
2 5 FIVE ELEMENTS B B Shinn · F C Lor 11 5.5 N
3 1 KING LAND C L Chau · T P Yung 7 106.0 1/2
4 9 PINS PRINCE H/P/TT J Moreira · J Size 10 9.4 1-1/4
5 6 PRINCE ALEX SR1 C Y Ho · D J Whyte 8 29.0 1-3/4
6 10 REVE PARISIEN M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan 2 138.0 2
7 4 ATULLIBIGEAL H/XB Z Purton · D J Hall 4 5.2 2-1/4
8 7 SUPER FORTUNE TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 1 2.6 2-3/4
9 8 COMING PATCH CP1/H1 H Bentley · K H Ting 5 85.0 5-3/4
10 11 WAR OF COURAGE B K C Leung · K L Man 6 12.0 7-3/4
11 3 TEAM SPIRIT B/TT K H Chan · W Y So 9 79.0 46-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ROCK YA HEART2. FIVE ELEMENTS+0.05L3. KING LAND+0.5L4. PINS PRINCE+1.25L5. PRINCE ALEX+1.75L6. REVE PARISIEN+2L7. ATULLIBIGEAL+2.25L8. SUPER FORTUNE+2.75L9. COMING PATCH+5.75L10. WAR OF COURAGE+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SUPER FORTUNE (35.2%) finished 8th — the winner ROCK YA HEART was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SUPER FORTUNE 35.2% 2.84 8
2 9 PINS PRINCE 16.9% 5.92 4
3 4 ATULLIBIGEAL 13.9% 7.19 7
4 2 ROCK YA HEART 11.9% 8.38 1
5 5 FIVE ELEMENTS 8.1% 12.35 2
6 11 WAR OF COURAGE 4.3% 23.08 10
7 1 KING LAND 3.0% 33.78 3
8 6 PRINCE ALEX 2.6% 38.90 5
9 8 COMING PATCH 1.7% 59.79 9
10 3 TEAM SPIRIT 1.6% 61.20 11
11 10 REVE PARISIEN 0.8% 119.55 6
SUPER FORTUNEPINS PRINCEATULLIBIGEALROCK YA HEART — wonFIVE ELEMENTSWAR OF COURAGEKING LANDPRINCE ALEXCOMING PATCHTEAM SPIRITREVE PARISIEN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 50.5

PLACE

1 132

2 16

5 20

QUINELLA

2,5 213

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 392.5

1,5 613

2,5 62.5

FORECAST

2,5 321

TIERCE

2,5,1 8,736

TRIO

1,2,5 3,196

FIRST 4

1,2,5,9 3,869

QUARTET

2,5,1,9 63,630

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 20.5

A1

A3

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,8/1,2,5 146,039

9TH DOUBLE

1/2 50.5

1/5 16.5

SIX UP

1,7/3,11/1,7/11,13/1,3/2,5 2,697

7/3/1/13/1/2 13,211

2 [J Moreira]

TREBLE

13/1/2 491

13/1/5 138