Sha Tin · 2022-04-03 · 16:11

Race 7

Group 2 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 9 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-03 was Group 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WELLINGTON, ridden by A Badel and trained by R Gibson, won by N, with SIGHT SUCCESS second and MASTER EIGHT third. The 3.2 favourite MASTER EIGHT finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.08.23

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	WELLINGTON XB 1.08.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · R Gibson	A Badel	R Gibson	7	128 lb	5.4	N
2	7	SIGHT SUCCESS E V Borges · J Size	V Borges	J Size	3	123 lb	8.2	N
3	8	MASTER EIGHT J Moreira · F C Lor	J Moreira	F C Lor	1	123 lb	3.2	1
4	6	LUCKY EXPRESS B/E/TT A Hamelin · J Size	A Hamelin	J Size	4	123 lb	22.0	1-3/4
5	3	HOT KING PRAWN Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	6	123 lb	4.3	1-3/4
6	5	COMPUTER PATCH TT M Chadwick · K H Ting	M Chadwick	K H Ting	2	123 lb	19.0	2
7	4	SUPER WEALTHY H K Teetan · D A Hayes	K Teetan	D A Hayes	8	123 lb	7.9	2
8	2	STRONGER SR/XB C Y Ho · D J Whyte	C Y Ho	D J Whyte	9	128 lb	9.3	2-1/2
9	9	KURPANY B/TT B Shinn · C Fownes	B Shinn	C Fownes	5	123 lb	30.0	7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick MASTER EIGHT (30.8%) finished 3rd — the winner WELLINGTON was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	8	MASTER EIGHT	30.8%	3.25	3	3.2
2	3	HOT KING PRAWN	15.3%	6.53	5	4.3
3	4	SUPER WEALTHY	14.5%	6.90	7	7.9
4	7	SIGHT SUCCESS	12.0%	8.34	2	8.2
5	9	KURPANY	8.2%	12.21	9	30.0
6	2	STRONGER	6.7%	14.85	8	9.3
7	1	WELLINGTON	5.8%	17.23	1	5.4
8	6	LUCKY EXPRESS	4.2%	23.92	4	22.0
9	5	COMPUTER PATCH	2.5%	39.65	6	19.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 54.5

PLACE

1 18.5

7 25.5

8 15

QUINELLA

1,7 286

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 97.5

1,8 46.5

7,8 46.5

FORECAST

1,7 485

TIERCE

1,7,8 1,752

TRIO

1,7,8 252

FIRST 4

1,6,7,8 577

QUARTET

1,7,8,6 12,696

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,7,11/1,7,8 135,457

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 24

6TH DOUBLE

3/1 175

3/7 67.5

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