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Sha Tin · 2022-04-03 · 16:43

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-03 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. DRAGON PRIDE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by T P Yung, won by SH, with PRESIDENT'S CHOICE second and BEAUTY SPIRIT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite FREE FOAL finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.34.97
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly 1.34.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · T P Yung 3 7.5 SH
2 11 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE Closed strongly J Moreira · C W Chang 11 12.0 SH
3 1 BEAUTY SPIRIT Led early B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 7 15.0 1-3/4
4 6 COPARTNER ERA Closed strongly B C Y Ho · W Y So 9 20.0 1-3/4
5 5 DECISIVE ACTION Closed strongly CP/TT K C Leung · C S Shum 10 73.0 2-3/4
6 2 FREE FOAL CP Z Purton · F C Lor 5 3.6 3-1/4
7 10 LOTUS FAVORITES Closed strongly H M F Poon · D J Hall 14 7.8 3-1/4
8 9 GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 8 55.0 4
9 4 TOYCOON Closed strongly CP C L Chau · P F Yiu 12 11.0 4-1/4
10 7 NOBLE STEED B- L Ferraris · K W Lui 2 31.0 4-1/2
11 8 CORDYCEPS TWO H Bentley · C H Yip 4 8.3 4-1/2
12 14 LOYAL AMBITION H/TT C Wong · C Fownes 1 58.0 4-3/4
13 12 STRATHMORETOO Closed strongly B H T Mo · A T Millard 13 181.0 5-1/4
14 3 GENERAL WINNER CP K Teetan · K H Ting 6 5.2 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DRAGON PRIDE2. PRESIDENT'S CHOICE+0.1L3. BEAUTY SPIRIT+1.75L4. COPARTNER ERA+1.75L5. DECISIVE ACTION+2.75L6. FREE FOAL+3.25L7. LOTUS FAVORITES+3.25L8. GREAT TREASURE+4L9. TOYCOON+4.25L10. NOBLE STEED+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick FREE FOAL (20.8%) finished 6th — the winner DRAGON PRIDE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 FREE FOAL 20.8% 4.80 6
2 3 GENERAL WINNER 19.3% 5.17 14
3 13 DRAGON PRIDE 12.4% 8.07 1
4 1 BEAUTY SPIRIT 7.0% 14.30 3
5 10 LOTUS FAVORITES 6.9% 14.53 7
6 8 CORDYCEPS TWO 6.3% 15.79 11
7 4 TOYCOON 6.3% 15.92 9
8 11 PRESIDENT'S CHOICE 6.0% 16.74 2
9 6 COPARTNER ERA 4.9% 20.32 4
10 14 LOYAL AMBITION 3.3% 30.37 12
11 7 NOBLE STEED 3.0% 33.06 10
12 5 DECISIVE ACTION 1.4% 73.66 5
13 12 STRATHMORETOO 1.2% 83.48 13
14 9 GREAT TREASURE 1.2% 85.68 8
FREE FOALGENERAL WINNERDRAGON PRIDE — wonBEAUTY SPIRITLOTUS FAVORITESCORDYCEPS TWOTOYCOONPRESIDENT'S CHOICECOPARTNER ERALOYAL AMBITIONNOBLE STEEDDECISIVE ACTIONSTRATHMORETOOGREAT TREASURE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 75.5

PLACE

1 42.5

11 38

13 26

QUINELLA

11,13 427

QUINELLA PLACE

1,11 258

1,13 183.5

11,13 141.5

FORECAST

13,11 960

TIERCE

13,11,1 11,168

TRIO

1,11,13 1,934

FIRST 4

1,6,11,13 6,303

QUARTET

13,11,1,6 105,759

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 30.5

7TH DOUBLE

1/11 92.5

1/13 293