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Sha Tin · 2022-04-03 · 12:46

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-03 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SCIENCE PATCH, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by SH, with WOODFIRE BRO second and GALLANT HERO third. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.63
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SCIENCE PATCH B 1.09.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 4 2.9 SH
2 6 WOODFIRE BRO TT1 M L Yeung · L Ho 2 4.1 SH
3 8 GALLANT HERO J Moreira · D J Hall 10 9.7 1
4 10 GOOD BEAUTY CP/TT Z Purton · K L Man 14 6.1 1
5 14 ROYAL AGILITY B/TT M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 9 22.0 2
6 5 DOUBLE SHOW SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 6 80.0 2-1/4
7 9 HAPPY MATADOR B/TT B Shinn · R Gibson 5 79.0 2-1/2
8 1 LUCKY QUALITY V K H Chan · C Fownes 7 16.0 3
9 11 TOUCH FAITH V Borges · J Size 13 25.0 4
10 13 CALL ME LU TT A Hamelin · W Y So 12 172.0 5
11 3 GLORIFIED FIRE K C Leung · C H Yip 3 16.0 6
12 7 HAPPILY FRIENDS V C Y Ho · K H Ting 1 9.8 6-1/2
13 4 SERGEANT PEPPER A Badel · Y S Tsui 11 53.0 6-3/4
14 12 FORTUNE MARBO B/TT H T Mo · T P Yung 8 150.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SCIENCE PATCH2. WOODFIRE BRO+0.1L3. GALLANT HERO+1L4. GOOD BEAUTY+1L5. ROYAL AGILITY+2L6. DOUBLE SHOW+2.25L7. HAPPY MATADOR+2.5L8. LUCKY QUALITY+3L9. TOUCH FAITH+4L10. CALL ME LU+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SCIENCE PATCH (26.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SCIENCE PATCH 26.7% 3.74 1
2 8 GALLANT HERO 19.0% 5.27 3
3 10 GOOD BEAUTY 13.0% 7.70 4
4 7 HAPPILY FRIENDS 10.2% 9.78 12
5 1 LUCKY QUALITY 6.5% 15.46 8
6 11 TOUCH FAITH 5.6% 17.84 9
7 14 ROYAL AGILITY 5.3% 18.92 5
8 4 SERGEANT PEPPER 4.1% 24.27 13
9 6 WOODFIRE BRO 2.8% 36.21 2
10 3 GLORIFIED FIRE 2.5% 40.24 11
11 9 HAPPY MATADOR 1.7% 58.83 7
12 5 DOUBLE SHOW 1.1% 88.56 6
13 12 FORTUNE MARBO 0.8% 121.18 14
14 13 CALL ME LU 0.7% 138.45 10
SCIENCE PATCH — wonGALLANT HEROGOOD BEAUTYHAPPILY FRIENDSLUCKY QUALITYTOUCH FAITHROYAL AGILITYSERGEANT PEPPERWOODFIRE BROGLORIFIED FIREHAPPY MATADORDOUBLE SHOWFORTUNE MARBOCALL ME LU

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 29.5

PLACE

2 13

6 16.5

8 27.5

QUINELLA

2,6 74.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 32.5

2,8 49.5

6,8 68

FORECAST

2,6 141

TIERCE

2,6,8 643

TRIO

2,6,8 193

FIRST 4

2,6,8,10 164

QUARTET

2,6,8,10 1,838

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 17

A3