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Sha Tin · 2022-04-03 · 13:16

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-03 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. KUNG FU TEA, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with NOBLE MAN second and MULTIPLE STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite G ONE EXCELLENT finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.23.05
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 KUNG FU TEA Closed strongly B 1.23.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D J Hall 11 8.5 N
2 14 NOBLE MAN B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 6 11.0 N
3 12 MULTIPLE STAR Closed strongly H Bentley · T P Yung 12 82.0 1/2
4 8 SMART FOLKS Led early B2 A Hamelin · C W Chang 14 12.0 3/4
5 5 SEIZE THE SPIRIT Closed strongly K Teetan · Y S Tsui 8 8.6 1-3/4
6 7 MOONLUCK Closed strongly A Badel · K W Lui 3 11.0 2-1/2
7 11 VIVA CHEF Closed strongly B-/P1 M Chadwick · L Ho 13 75.0 2-3/4
8 9 TOWARDS SUCCESS Closed strongly XB1/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 7 19.0 3
9 1 G ONE EXCELLENT TT Z Purton · C H Yip 4 3.0 4
10 10 SHENRON XB2/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes 9 35.0 5
11 6 DESTIN B J Moreira · P O'Sullivan 1 5.0 6
12 3 FORTUNE HERO B/TT B Shinn · R Gibson 10 61.0 7-1/4
13 2 LIGHT MY DAY B/TT K H Chan · C H Yip 2 21.0 8
14 13 SCHOLAR B/TT V Borges · A T Millard 5 37.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KUNG FU TEA2. NOBLE MAN+0.05L3. MULTIPLE STAR+0.5L4. SMART FOLKS+0.75L5. SEIZE THE SPIRIT+1.75L6. MOONLUCK+2.5L7. VIVA CHEF+2.75L8. TOWARDS SUCCESS+3L9. G ONE EXCELLENT+4L10. SHENRON+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick G ONE EXCELLENT (25.9%) finished 9th — the winner KUNG FU TEA was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 G ONE EXCELLENT 25.9% 3.87 9
2 6 DESTIN 21.3% 4.69 11
3 5 SEIZE THE SPIRIT 12.8% 7.82 5
4 2 LIGHT MY DAY 10.9% 9.21 13
5 7 MOONLUCK 6.1% 16.50 6
6 9 TOWARDS SUCCESS 6.0% 16.54 8
7 4 KUNG FU TEA 3.4% 29.04 1
8 10 SHENRON 2.9% 34.92 10
9 8 SMART FOLKS 2.5% 40.35 4
10 14 NOBLE MAN 2.2% 45.35 2
11 13 SCHOLAR 1.9% 52.70 14
12 11 VIVA CHEF 1.8% 54.42 7
13 3 FORTUNE HERO 1.7% 59.64 12
14 12 MULTIPLE STAR 0.7% 152.93 3
G ONE EXCELLENTDESTINSEIZE THE SPIRITLIGHT MY DAYMOONLUCKTOWARDS SUCCESSKUNG FU TEA — wonSHENRONSMART FOLKSNOBLE MANSCHOLARVIVA CHEFFORTUNE HEROMULTIPLE STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 85

PLACE

4 26.5

12 187.5

14 41

QUINELLA

4,14 564.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,12 1,142.5

4,14 187

12,14 1,711.5

FORECAST

4,14 1,287

TIERCE

4,14,12 82,653

TRIO

4,12,14 16,719

FIRST 4

4,8,12,14 43,048

QUARTET

4,14,12,8 979,982

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

2/4 256.5

2/14 110

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 23