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Sha Tin · 2022-04-16 · 17:48

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 13 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-16 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. DECRYPT, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1, with SUPER DYNAMITE second and SAUVESTRE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite SAUVESTRE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.21.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 DECRYPT Closed strongly TT 1.21.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · D A Hayes 6 24.0 1
2 4 SUPER DYNAMITE Closed strongly C Y Ho · P F Yiu 5 6.0 1
3 3 SAUVESTRE Closed strongly TT Z Purton · F C Lor 3 3.0 1-1/4
4 9 HORSESAIN BOLT Closed strongly XB-/B/TT V Borges · D J Whyte 10 31.0 2
5 14 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly B/XB M L Yeung · C W Chang 2 14.0 2
6 1 COPARTNER AMBITION Closed strongly CP/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 9 10.0 3
7 5 THE HULK Closed strongly J Moreira · C Fownes 14 15.0 3-1/2
8 10 COMPASSION SPIRIT B K C Leung · K L Man 13 70.0 5
9 2 KILINDINI TT R Maia · A T Millard 11 26.0 6-3/4
10 11 KA YING EXCELLENT CP/TT L Currie · T P Yung 1 21.0 6-3/4
11 7 SUPER WINNER Led early TT H Bentley · C H Yip 8 5.8 7-1/2
12 13 EMERGING Closed strongly H1/TT1 A Badel · R Gibson 12 45.0 8
13 12 HARMONY WIN WIN SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 7 10.0 9-1/2
6 HEZA BEAUTY B/E B Shinn · J Size 4 50.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DECRYPT2. SUPER DYNAMITE+1L3. SAUVESTRE+1.25L4. HORSESAIN BOLT+2L5. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+2L6. COPARTNER AMBITION+3L7. THE HULK+3.5L8. COMPASSION SPIRIT+5L9. KILINDINI+6.75L10. KA YING EXCELLENT+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SAUVESTRE (31.7%) finished 3rd — the winner DECRYPT was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 SAUVESTRE 31.7% 3.15 3
2 1 COPARTNER AMBITION 14.8% 6.76 6
3 4 SUPER DYNAMITE 14.2% 7.07 2
4 5 THE HULK 7.9% 12.69 7
5 2 KILINDINI 5.8% 17.35 9
6 11 KA YING EXCELLENT 4.8% 20.88 10
7 7 SUPER WINNER 4.0% 24.95 11
8 9 HORSESAIN BOLT 3.9% 25.46 4
9 14 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 3.6% 27.95 5
10 8 DECRYPT 3.0% 33.04 1
11 13 EMERGING 2.3% 43.64 12
12 12 HARMONY WIN WIN 2.2% 45.44 13
13 10 COMPASSION SPIRIT 1.9% 53.29 8
SAUVESTRECOPARTNER AMBITIONSUPER DYNAMITETHE HULKKILINDINIKA YING EXCELLENTSUPER WINNERHORSESAIN BOLTRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINEDECRYPT — wonEMERGINGHARMONY WIN WINCOMPASSION SPIRIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 246

PLACE

3 15

4 21

8 59

QUINELLA

4,8 885

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 38

3,8 137.5

4,8 240

FORECAST

8,4 2,168

TIERCE

8,4,3 7,804

TRIO

3,4,8 850

FIRST 4

3,4,8,9 4,079

QUARTET

8,4,3,9 148,295

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 23.5

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,8,12/3,4,8 244,119

9TH DOUBLE

1/4 84

1/8 4,169.5

SIX UP

2,6/4,5/1,2/5,6,9/1,8/4,8 3,717

2 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

5,9/1/4 331

5,9/1/8 17,291