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Sha Tin · 2022-04-16 · 17:48

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 DECRYPT Closed strongly TT 1.21.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · D A Hayes 6 24.0 1
2 0 SUPER DYNAMITE Closed strongly C Y Ho · P F Yiu 5 6.0 1
3 0 SAUVESTRE Closed strongly TT Z Purton · F C Lor 3 3.0 1-1/4
4 0 HORSESAIN BOLT Closed strongly XB-/B/TT V Borges · D J Whyte 10 31.0 2
5 0 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly B/XB M L Yeung · C W Chang 2 14.0 2
6 0 COPARTNER AMBITION Closed strongly CP/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 9 10.0 3
7 0 THE HULK Closed strongly J Moreira · C Fownes 14 15.0 3-1/2
8 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT B K C Leung · K L Man 13 70.0 5
9 0 KILINDINI TT R Maia · A T Millard 11 26.0 6-3/4
10 0 KA YING EXCELLENT CP/TT L Currie · T P Yung 1 21.0 6-3/4
11 0 SUPER WINNER Led early TT H Bentley · C H Yip 8 5.8 7-1/2
12 0 EMERGING Closed strongly H1/TT1 A Badel · R Gibson 12 45.0 8
13 0 HARMONY WIN WIN SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 7 10.0 9-1/2
— 0 HEZA BEAUTY B/E B Shinn · J Size 4 50.0 —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-16 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. DECRYPT, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1, with SUPER DYNAMITE second and SAUVESTRE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite SAUVESTRE finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DECRYPT—2. SUPER DYNAMITE+1L3. SAUVESTRE+1.25L4. HORSESAIN BOLT+2L5. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+2L6. COPARTNER AMBITION+3L7. THE HULK+3.5L8. COMPASSION SPIRIT+5L9. KILINDINI+6.75L10. KA YING EXCELLENT+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SAUVESTRE (31.7%) finished 3rd — the winner DECRYPT was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 SAUVESTRE 31.7% 3.15 3
2 0 COPARTNER AMBITION 14.8% 6.76 6
3 0 SUPER DYNAMITE 14.2% 7.07 2
4 0 THE HULK 7.9% 12.69 7
5 0 KILINDINI 5.8% 17.35 9
6 0 KA YING EXCELLENT 4.8% 20.88 10
7 0 SUPER WINNER 4.0% 24.95 11
8 0 HORSESAIN BOLT 3.9% 25.46 4
9 0 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 3.6% 27.95 5
10 0 DECRYPT 3.0% 33.04 1
11 0 EMERGING 2.3% 43.64 12
12 0 HARMONY WIN WIN 2.2% 45.44 13
13 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT 1.9% 53.29 8
SAUVESTRECOPARTNER AMBITIONSUPER DYNAMITETHE HULKKILINDINIKA YING EXCELLENTSUPER WINNERHORSESAIN BOLTRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINEDECRYPT — wonEMERGINGHARMONY WIN WINCOMPASSION SPIRIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 246

PLACE

3 15

4 21

8 59

QUINELLA

4,8 885

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 38

3,8 137.5

4,8 240

FORECAST

8,4 2,168

TIERCE

8,4,3 7,804

TRIO

3,4,8 850

FIRST 4

3,4,8,9 4,079

QUARTET

8,4,3,9 148,295

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 23.5

A2 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,8,12/3,4,8 244,119

9TH DOUBLE

1/4 84

1/8 4,169.5

SIX UP

2,6/4,5/1,2/5,6,9/1,8/4,8 3,717

2 [Z Purton] —

TREBLE

5,9/1/4 331

5,9/1/8 17,291