Sha Tin · 2022-04-16 · 16:40
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-16 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. BLOTTING PAPER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by R Gibson, won by 3/4, with HANDSOME TWELVE second and SUN OF MAKFI third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | BLOTTING PAPER Wire to wire TT 1.38.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · R Gibson | Z Purton | R Gibson | 8 | 3.7 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 6 | HANDSOME TWELVE Closed strongly C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 13 | 11.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 12 | SUN OF MAKFI Closed strongly XB A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 3 | 5.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 10 | STEEL WIN B- M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 1 | 15.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | NIMBLE NIMBUS CP-/XB-/V1/TT1 H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 12 | 28.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | UNITE SPIRIT Closed strongly B/XB B Shinn · W Y So | B Shinn | W Y So | 10 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 11 | LADY FIRST Closed strongly CP/H/XB/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 2 | 5.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | FAST PACE H/TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 6 | 19.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | AMAZING TEENS H/P/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 14 | 30.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 13 | JUBILATION Closed strongly V H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 9 | 184.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 14 | MISTER ARM C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 5 | 59.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 3 | LIFELINE VISION L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 7 | 33.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 13 | 4 | MISSION BRAVO H/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 11 | 6.3 | 9 |
| — | 5 | STAR OF YUEN LONG C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | LADY FIRST | 21.3% | 4.70 | 7 |
| 2 | 9 | BLOTTING PAPER | 18.4% | 5.43 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | MISSION BRAVO | 10.0% | 9.97 | 13 |
| 4 | 12 | SUN OF MAKFI | 8.9% | 11.22 | 3 |
| 5 | 2 | AMAZING TEENS | 7.7% | 13.00 | 9 |
| 6 | 7 | NIMBLE NIMBUS | 7.4% | 13.43 | 5 |
| 7 | 1 | FAST PACE | 6.1% | 16.50 | 8 |
| 8 | 8 | UNITE SPIRIT | 5.5% | 18.33 | 6 |
| 9 | 14 | MISTER ARM | 4.4% | 22.82 | 11 |
| 10 | 3 | LIFELINE VISION | 4.3% | 23.23 | 12 |
| 11 | 6 | HANDSOME TWELVE | 3.5% | 28.84 | 2 |
| 12 | 10 | STEEL WIN | 1.9% | 53.27 | 4 |
| 13 | 13 | JUBILATION | 0.7% | 144.30 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 37.5
PLACE
6 45.5
9 16.5
12 17.5
QUINELLA
6,9 298
QUINELLA PLACE
6,9 105
6,12 121
9,12 42.5
FORECAST
9,6 502
TIERCE
9,6,12 2,264
TRIO
6,9,12 461
FIRST 4
6,9,10,12 1,293
QUARTET
9,6,12,10 22,611
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 22.5
7TH DOUBLE
2/5,9 99.5
2/6 89