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Sha Tin · 2022-04-16 · 15:03

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-16 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. PERFECT MARYKNOLL, ridden by H Bentley and trained by T P Yung, won by 1-1/4, with LOOKING COOL second and SACRED IBIS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite RIGHT AS RAIN finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.48.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 PERFECT MARYKNOLL Closed strongly B/TT 1.48.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · T P Yung 14 42.0 1-1/4
2 2 LOOKING COOL Closed strongly CP-/PC1 Z Purton · F C Lor 4 4.5 1-1/4
3 5 SACRED IBIS XB R Maia · A T Millard 1 23.0 2
4 7 RIGHT AS RAIN Closed strongly B J Moreira · C W Chang 3 2.4 2-1/2
5 8 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V C Wong · C H Yip 12 116.0 3
6 9 RED ELYSEES B/TT C L Chau · K L Man 10 17.0 3-1/4
7 12 TURQUOISE ALPHA CP/XB K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 2 24.0 3-1/2
8 14 LOTUS FAVORITES Closed strongly H A Badel · D J Hall 9 6.8 4-3/4
9 10 SUNNY DELIGHT Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 11 26.0 5-3/4
10 4 ROBOT WARRIOR B L Currie · P F Yiu 7 17.0 6
11 11 EEVEE Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · D A Hayes 13 16.0 6
12 1 GOD OF DRAGON Closed strongly B/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 6 21.0 6-3/4
13 13 SUPER ELEGANCE V/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 8 31.0 7-3/4
14 3 PERFECT TO GREAT Led early PC-/TT2 K H Chan · C Fownes 5 35.0 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PERFECT MARYKNOLL2. LOOKING COOL+1.25L3. SACRED IBIS+2L4. RIGHT AS RAIN+2.5L5. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+3L6. RED ELYSEES+3.25L7. TURQUOISE ALPHA+3.5L8. LOTUS FAVORITES+4.75L9. SUNNY DELIGHT+5.75L10. ROBOT WARRIOR+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick LOOKING COOL (27.8%) finished 2nd — the winner PERFECT MARYKNOLL was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 LOOKING COOL 27.8% 3.59 2
2 7 RIGHT AS RAIN 23.9% 4.18 4
3 4 ROBOT WARRIOR 9.3% 10.77 10
4 10 SUNNY DELIGHT 6.6% 15.09 9
5 14 LOTUS FAVORITES 5.7% 17.41 8
6 6 PERFECT MARYKNOLL 4.5% 22.30 1
7 11 EEVEE 3.9% 25.38 11
8 9 RED ELYSEES 3.9% 25.94 6
9 13 SUPER ELEGANCE 3.5% 28.76 13
10 5 SACRED IBIS 3.3% 30.53 3
11 12 TURQUOISE ALPHA 3.2% 30.81 7
12 3 PERFECT TO GREAT 2.1% 47.55 14
13 8 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 1.3% 74.76 5
14 1 GOD OF DRAGON 0.9% 117.54 12
LOOKING COOLRIGHT AS RAINROBOT WARRIORSUNNY DELIGHTLOTUS FAVORITESPERFECT MARYKNOLL — wonEEVEERED ELYSEESSUPER ELEGANCESACRED IBISTURQUOISE ALPHAPERFECT TO GREATMURRAY'S PARTNERSGOD OF DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 429

PLACE

2 16.5

5 55

6 93.5

QUINELLA

2,6 854.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 166

2,6 274

5,6 1,047.5

FORECAST

6,2 1,899

TIERCE

6,2,5 47,175

TRIO

2,5,6 6,426

FIRST 4

2,5,6,7 2,971

QUARTET

6,2,5,7 132,861

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 29

4TH DOUBLE

10/2 130.5

10/6 4,575.5