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Sha Tin · 2022-04-16 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-16 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. JAZZ ANGEL, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C Fownes, won by 2, with SMART FOLKS second and UTOPIA LIFE third. The 2.5 favourite E BROTHER finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.08.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 JAZZ ANGEL 1.08.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C Fownes 12 12.0 2
2 12 SMART FOLKS B M L Yeung · C W Chang 6 9.5 2
3 2 UTOPIA LIFE B K C Leung · Y S Tsui 11 20.0 2-1/4
4 7 E BROTHER B/TT A Badel · K L Man 5 2.5 2-3/4
5 11 WISDOM PATCH PC/TT J Moreira · P O'Sullivan 9 6.3 3-1/2
6 9 TAKINGUFURTHER V C Wong · K H Ting 4 29.0 4
7 6 COOLCELEB B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 2 14.0 4-1/4
8 8 TEAM GOODLUCK CP/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 1 10.0 5
9 5 HEAVENLY THOUGHT B H Bentley · C H Yip 8 74.0 6-1/4
10 10 DASHING GENIUS B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 3 37.0 6-1/4
11 3 COLOURFUL PRINCE SR1/XB1/TT1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 7 6.2 10-1/2
12 4 LE PLUS VITE CP/TT1 L Currie · D A Hayes 10 52.0 12-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JAZZ ANGEL2. SMART FOLKS+2L3. UTOPIA LIFE+2.25L4. E BROTHER+2.75L5. WISDOM PATCH+3.5L6. TAKINGUFURTHER+4L7. COOLCELEB+4.25L8. TEAM GOODLUCK+5L9. HEAVENLY THOUGHT+6.25L10. DASHING GENIUS+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick WISDOM PATCH (25.2%) finished 5th — the winner JAZZ ANGEL was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 WISDOM PATCH 25.2% 3.97 5
2 8 TEAM GOODLUCK 16.3% 6.15 8
3 7 E BROTHER 13.7% 7.32 4
4 6 COOLCELEB 9.1% 11.05 7
5 12 SMART FOLKS 8.5% 11.77 2
6 1 JAZZ ANGEL 7.4% 13.56 1
7 2 UTOPIA LIFE 4.3% 23.23 3
8 9 TAKINGUFURTHER 4.3% 23.47 6
9 5 HEAVENLY THOUGHT 3.7% 26.79 9
10 10 DASHING GENIUS 3.7% 27.07 10
11 4 LE PLUS VITE 2.4% 42.11 12
12 3 COLOURFUL PRINCE 1.6% 62.80 11
WISDOM PATCHTEAM GOODLUCKE BROTHERCOOLCELEBSMART FOLKSJAZZ ANGEL — wonUTOPIA LIFETAKINGUFURTHERHEAVENLY THOUGHTDASHING GENIUSLE PLUS VITECOLOURFUL PRINCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 126

PLACE

1 33.5

2 53

12 28.5

QUINELLA

1,12 627

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 194

1,12 177.5

2,12 222.5

FORECAST

1,12 1,680

TIERCE

1,12,2 11,139

TRIO

1,2,12 1,968

FIRST 4

1,2,7,12 1,490

QUARTET

1,12,2,7 40,978

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

4/1 514

4/12 142

3 PICK 1

A3 31.5

A1

A2