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Sha Tin · 2022-04-16 · 17:14

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-16 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. CAMPIONE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/2, with LIKE THAT second and FLYING DRAGON third. The 1.8 favourite LIGHTNING BOLT finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.08.18
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 CAMPIONE TT 1.08.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · A S Cruz 12 11.0 1-1/2
2 8 LIKE THAT V K C Leung · F C Lor 2 8.4 1-1/2
3 12 FLYING DRAGON H Bentley · C H Yip 8 11.0 1-3/4
4 7 LIGHTNING BOLT J Moreira · C S Shum 5 1.8 2-1/2
5 10 CALL ME TEDDY C Y Ho · C W Chang 9 48.0 4
6 4 DROPS OF GOD P V Borges · J Size 1 10.0 5
7 11 MAGIC SUPREME B/TT R Maia · K L Man 3 17.0 5-1/2
8 6 MAN STAR V L Hewitson · K H Ting 4 45.0 5-1/2
9 5 IGNITING TT K H Chan · K W Lui 6 57.0 6-1/4
10 9 ALL IN MIND TT A Badel · C Fownes 11 19.0 7-1/2
11 3 SUNNY BOY B/TT C L Chau · W Y So 10 48.0 7-3/4
12 2 HARMONY N BLESSED BO/XB/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 7 10.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CAMPIONE2. LIKE THAT+1.5L3. FLYING DRAGON+1.75L4. LIGHTNING BOLT+2.5L5. CALL ME TEDDY+4L6. DROPS OF GOD+5L7. MAGIC SUPREME+5.5L8. MAN STAR+5.5L9. IGNITING+6.25L10. ALL IN MIND+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick LIGHTNING BOLT (27.4%) finished 4th — the winner CAMPIONE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 LIGHTNING BOLT 27.4% 3.65 4
2 4 DROPS OF GOD 16.6% 6.02 6
3 2 HARMONY N BLESSED 12.3% 8.16 12
4 1 CAMPIONE 10.8% 9.30 1
5 8 LIKE THAT 7.5% 13.41 2
6 11 MAGIC SUPREME 7.3% 13.61 7
7 12 FLYING DRAGON 5.9% 16.95 3
8 5 IGNITING 3.3% 30.30 9
9 3 SUNNY BOY 3.2% 31.15 11
10 9 ALL IN MIND 2.7% 36.51 10
11 10 CALL ME TEDDY 1.8% 56.54 5
12 6 MAN STAR 1.3% 79.26 8
LIGHTNING BOLTDROPS OF GODHARMONY N BLESSEDCAMPIONE — wonLIKE THATMAGIC SUPREMEFLYING DRAGONIGNITINGSUNNY BOYALL IN MINDCALL ME TEDDYMAN STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 116

PLACE

1 34

8 21.5

12 32.5

QUINELLA

1,8 572

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 143

1,12 174

8,12 111

FORECAST

1,8 1,018

TIERCE

1,8,12 9,632

TRIO

1,8,12 1,935

FIRST 4

1,7,8,12 401

QUARTET

1,8,12,7 17,595

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 16

8TH DOUBLE

5,9/1 425.5

5,9/8 57.5