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Sha Tin · 2022-04-16 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.38.12
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SO WE JOY Closed strongly H/XB 1.38.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C W Chang 2 6.9 1-1/4
2 0 APACHE PASS Closed strongly BO/XB K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 3 3.2 1-1/4
3 0 BEAUTY FIT Closed strongly B-/E/PC1 J Moreira · J Size 1 4.4 1-1/2
4 0 ROMANTIC COMBO B/TT H Bentley · C S Shum 6 20.0 2-1/2
5 0 SKYEY SUPREME Led early B/TT C Wong · K W Lui 7 21.0 3
6 0 PARTY EVERYDAY Closed strongly H/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 10 20.0 3-1/4
7 0 TURIN REDSTAR Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 9 13.0 5-1/4
8 0 HAPPY ANGEL Closed strongly CP H W Lai · D A Hayes 8 68.0 5-1/4
9 0 A LA KING B-/V1/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 11 25.0 6-3/4
10 0 LEAP OF FAITH P Z Purton · J Size 5 10.0 7
11 0 INFINITE POWER CP M F Poon · F C Lor 4 6.2 9-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-16 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SO WE JOY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C W Chang, won by 1-1/4, with APACHE PASS second and BEAUTY FIT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite APACHE PASS finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SO WE JOY—2. APACHE PASS+1.25L3. BEAUTY FIT+1.5L4. ROMANTIC COMBO+2.5L5. SKYEY SUPREME+3L6. PARTY EVERYDAY+3.25L7. TURIN REDSTAR+5.25L8. HAPPY ANGEL+5.25L9. A LA KING+6.75L10. LEAP OF FAITH+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick BEAUTY FIT (22.7%) finished 3rd — the winner SO WE JOY was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BEAUTY FIT 22.7% 4.40 3
2 0 LEAP OF FAITH 16.6% 6.03 10
3 0 APACHE PASS 16.2% 6.16 2
4 0 INFINITE POWER 10.8% 9.23 11
5 0 PARTY EVERYDAY 9.0% 11.16 6
6 0 ROMANTIC COMBO 7.3% 13.72 4
7 0 SO WE JOY 5.4% 18.64 1
8 0 SKYEY SUPREME 5.3% 18.95 5
9 0 A LA KING 3.9% 25.79 9
10 0 TURIN REDSTAR 1.8% 56.02 7
11 0 HAPPY ANGEL 1.1% 92.98 8
BEAUTY FITLEAP OF FAITHAPACHE PASSINFINITE POWERPARTY EVERYDAYROMANTIC COMBOSO WE JOY — wonSKYEY SUPREMEA LA KINGTURIN REDSTARHAPPY ANGEL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 69.5

PLACE

1 19

4 13.5

5 25.5

QUINELLA

4,5 120.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 38

1,5 68.5

4,5 48

FORECAST

5,4 365

TIERCE

5,4,1 1,281

TRIO

1,4,5 157

FIRST 4

1,4,5,8 535

QUARTET

5,4,1,8 12,362

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 25.5

A2 —

A1 —

5TH DOUBLE

6/4 278

6/5 3,298.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,5,10/2,5,6/Any Combination 316,920