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Sha Tin · 2022-04-16 · 13:01

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-04-16 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. RED BRICK FIGHTER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by 2-1/2, with AMAZING NEWS second and MISSION SMART third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite MISSION SMART finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.22.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 RED BRICK FIGHTER Closed strongly B 1.22.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 8 4.4 2-1/2
2 1 AMAZING NEWS Closed strongly XB/P1 B Shinn · C Fownes 9 24.0 2-1/2
3 10 MISSION SMART Led early CP K C Leung · F C Lor 3 3.6 3-1/4
4 2 ERNEST FEELING B/TT A Badel · R Gibson 2 9.2 3-1/4
5 5 SEIZE THE SPIRIT Closed strongly C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 10 13.0 3-3/4
6 11 VICTORIOUS LEADER Closed strongly H Bentley · C H Yip 13 45.0 4-1/2
7 12 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly V A Hamelin · P F Yiu 12 18.0 4-1/2
8 3 DRAGON BABY E/PC/TT J Moreira · J Size 4 6.5 4-1/2
9 7 MOONLUCK Closed strongly R Maia · K W Lui 14 28.0 4-3/4
10 8 GOLDEN FOUR L Hewitson · C W Chang 1 21.0 5-3/4
11 6 SICOMORO TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 6 28.0 6
12 13 VIVA CHEF P M F Poon · L Ho 5 26.0 7-3/4
13 9 STAR OF RED B/TT L Currie · T P Yung 7 21.0 8
14 14 SPEEDY DRAGON TT H W Lai · K L Man 11 18.0 15-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RED BRICK FIGHTER2. AMAZING NEWS+2.5L3. MISSION SMART+3.25L4. ERNEST FEELING+3.25L5. SEIZE THE SPIRIT+3.75L6. VICTORIOUS LEADER+4.5L7. WINWIN THIRTYTHREE+4.5L8. DRAGON BABY+4.5L9. MOONLUCK+4.75L10. GOLDEN FOUR+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick DRAGON BABY (22.8%) finished 8th — the winner RED BRICK FIGHTER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 DRAGON BABY 22.8% 4.38 8
2 4 RED BRICK FIGHTER 20.0% 5.01 1
3 5 SEIZE THE SPIRIT 8.5% 11.72 5
4 2 ERNEST FEELING 8.3% 12.09 4
5 10 MISSION SMART 7.6% 13.19 3
6 12 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 7.2% 13.95 7
7 7 MOONLUCK 5.1% 19.66 9
8 9 STAR OF RED 4.3% 23.52 13
9 14 SPEEDY DRAGON 3.4% 29.78 14
10 11 VICTORIOUS LEADER 3.4% 29.81 6
11 8 GOLDEN FOUR 2.8% 35.23 10
12 13 VIVA CHEF 2.7% 37.00 12
13 1 AMAZING NEWS 2.6% 38.85 2
14 6 SICOMORO 1.5% 67.01 11
DRAGON BABYRED BRICK FIGHTER — wonSEIZE THE SPIRITERNEST FEELINGMISSION SMARTWINWIN THIRTYTHREEMOONLUCKSTAR OF REDSPEEDY DRAGONVICTORIOUS LEADERGOLDEN FOURVIVA CHEFAMAZING NEWSSICOMORO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 44.5

PLACE

1 67

4 17

10 15

QUINELLA

1,4 417

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 138.5

1,10 162.5

4,10 43.5

FORECAST

4,1 667

TIERCE

4,1,10 3,364

TRIO

1,4,10 610

FIRST 4

1,2,4,10 1,369

QUARTET

4,1,10,2 31,962

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 26