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Happy Valley · 2022-04-20 · 19:46

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 9 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.48
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 NAMJONG SINGS B 1.09.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C S Shum 1 4.5 N
3 0 NEVER TOO SOON TT Z Purton · D J Hall 5 3.9 N
4 0 WILD WEST WING V Borges · J Size 6 25.0 2-1/4
5 0 TRIPLE TRIPLE CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 3 5.4 3-3/4
6 0 MERIDIAN GENIUS L Ferraris · A T Millard 7 9.5 4-1/2
7 0 FAULDS XB/TT C Wong · C H Yip 4 39.0 5
8 0 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 10 7.5 5-1/4
9 0 PRANCE DRAGON B/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 9 23.0 7
10 0 COLOURFUL BARON TT1 R Maia · R Gibson 8 52.0 12-1/4
— 0 RISING FROM ASHES H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui — 5.3 N

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-04-20 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. NAMJONG SINGS, ridden by A Badel and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with NEVER TOO SOON second and WILD WEST WING third. The 3.9 favourite NEVER TOO SOON finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NAMJONG SINGS—3. NEVER TOO SOON+0.05L4. WILD WEST WING+2.25L5. TRIPLE TRIPLE+3.75L6. MERIDIAN GENIUS+4.5L7. FAULDS+5L8. YOU'REMYEVERYTHING+5.25L9. PRANCE DRAGON+7L10. COLOURFUL BARON+12.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick TRIPLE TRIPLE (27.9%) finished 5th — the winner NAMJONG SINGS was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 TRIPLE TRIPLE 27.9% 3.58 5
2 0 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING 23.5% 4.26 8
3 0 NEVER TOO SOON 9.4% 10.59 3
4 0 NAMJONG SINGS 8.5% 11.78 1
5 0 RISING FROM ASHES 7.1% 13.99 —
6 0 WILD WEST WING 6.3% 15.85 4
7 0 FAULDS 5.7% 17.66 7
8 0 PRANCE DRAGON 4.6% 21.52 9
9 0 COLOURFUL BARON 3.5% 28.81 10
10 0 MERIDIAN GENIUS 3.4% 29.32 6
TRIPLE TRIPLEYOU'REMYEVERYTHINGNEVER TOO SOONNAMJONG SINGS — wonRISING FROM ASHESWILD WEST WINGFAULDSPRANCE DRAGONCOLOURFUL BARONMERIDIAN GENIUS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 45.5

PLACE

3 16.5

7 17

9 21

QUINELLA

3,9 143

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 36

3,9 51.5

7,9 52

FORECAST

3,9 353

TIERCE

3,9,7 1,185

TRIO

3,7,9 174

FIRST 4

3,6,7,9 660

QUARTET

3,9,7,6 15,663

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

5/3 201

5/9 53.5

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 24.5