Happy Valley · 2022-04-20 · 20:46
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-04-20 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SUPER COMMANDER, ridden by A Badel and trained by W Y So, won by N, with FARIBAULT second and GORGEOUS VITALITY third. The 3.5 favourite GORGEOUS VITALITY finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | SUPER COMMANDER B/TT 0.57.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 3 | 12.0 | N |
| 2 | 12 | FARIBAULT XB C Y Ho · P O'Sullivan | C Y Ho | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 8.7 | N |
| 3 | 10 | GORGEOUS VITALITY Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 6 | 3.5 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN H/SR/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 10 | 6.2 | 1 |
| 5 | 4 | LUCKY GOR P-/H/B1/TT1 J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 4 | 6.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | VAMOS H A Hamelin · D A Hayes | A Hamelin | D A Hayes | 9 | 6.2 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | COMPASSION SUPER M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 5 | 39.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | UTOPIA LIFE B H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 11 | 39.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | NEXTMODEL B1/TT L Currie · T P Yung | L Currie | T P Yung | 8 | 40.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 6 | DIAMOND SOARS C L Chau · A T Millard | C L Chau | A T Millard | 7 | 56.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 2 | MOMENTUM GALAXY B K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 2 | 9.3 | 5 |
| 12 | 1 | CIRCUIT SEVEN B/H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 12 | 19.0 | 10 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | LUCKY GOR | 19.2% | 5.19 | 5 |
| 2 | 12 | FARIBAULT | 19.1% | 5.24 | 2 |
| 3 | 10 | GORGEOUS VITALITY | 17.2% | 5.81 | 3 |
| 4 | 9 | PRETTY QUEEN PRAWN | 10.3% | 9.72 | 4 |
| 5 | 8 | VAMOS | 7.1% | 14.11 | 6 |
| 6 | 11 | SUPER COMMANDER | 6.9% | 14.46 | 1 |
| 7 | 3 | UTOPIA LIFE | 6.6% | 15.13 | 8 |
| 8 | 1 | CIRCUIT SEVEN | 4.7% | 21.21 | 12 |
| 9 | 7 | NEXTMODEL | 3.8% | 26.43 | 9 |
| 10 | 2 | MOMENTUM GALAXY | 2.8% | 35.37 | 11 |
| 11 | 5 | COMPASSION SUPER | 1.5% | 64.66 | 7 |
| 12 | 6 | DIAMOND SOARS | 0.7% | 148.04 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 120
PLACE
10 16.5
11 31.5
12 24
QUINELLA
11,12 369
QUINELLA PLACE
10,11 79
10,12 53
11,12 108.5
FORECAST
11,12 669
TIERCE
11,12,10 3,141
TRIO
10,11,12 439
FIRST 4
9,10,11,12 526
QUARTET
11,12,10,9 16,197
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,10/10,11,12 35,717
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 30
4TH DOUBLE
1/11 636
1/12 61