Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2022-04-20 · 22:53

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course C 11 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2022-04-20 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. GORYTUS, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with PACKING AWARD second and CALIFORNIA SKY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite PACKING AWARD finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 GORYTUS Closed strongly XB/TT 1.39.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C S Shum 7 27.0 N
2 6 PACKING AWARD Closed strongly H K Teetan · L Ho 3 2.2 N
3 10 CALIFORNIA SKY Led early H/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 5 15.0 N
4 7 GIFT OF LIFELINE Closed strongly B R Maia · A T Millard 1 13.0 1
5 3 ROCKET SPADE Closed strongly B/XB/TT B Shinn · C Fownes 11 8.9 1-1/4
6 11 LOYAL BABY TT M F Poon · F C Lor 2 5.0 1-1/2
7 1 TIANCHI MONSTER C Y Ho · W Y So 4 49.0 1-3/4
8 5 RED MAJESTY B/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes 10 31.0 2-1/2
9 8 TOTAL POWER Closed strongly B J Moreira · D J Hall 8 12.0 3-1/2
10 9 DR WINNING TT Z Purton · J Size 9 7.1 5
11 4 ODE TO JOY B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 6 74.0 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GORYTUS2. PACKING AWARD+0.05L3. CALIFORNIA SKY+0.05L4. GIFT OF LIFELINE+1L5. ROCKET SPADE+1.25L6. LOYAL BABY+1.5L7. TIANCHI MONSTER+1.75L8. RED MAJESTY+2.5L9. TOTAL POWER+3.5L10. DR WINNING+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick PACKING AWARD (20.8%) finished 2nd — the winner GORYTUS was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 PACKING AWARD 20.8% 4.82 2
2 11 LOYAL BABY 17.9% 5.59 6
3 8 TOTAL POWER 14.0% 7.15 9
4 10 CALIFORNIA SKY 10.6% 9.47 3
5 9 DR WINNING 10.2% 9.79 10
6 5 RED MAJESTY 8.9% 11.26 8
7 7 GIFT OF LIFELINE 5.5% 18.17 4
8 1 TIANCHI MONSTER 4.1% 24.31 7
9 2 GORYTUS 3.5% 28.28 1
10 3 ROCKET SPADE 2.5% 39.66 5
11 4 ODE TO JOY 2.0% 49.32 11
PACKING AWARDLOYAL BABYTOTAL POWERCALIFORNIA SKYDR WINNINGRED MAJESTYGIFT OF LIFELINETIANCHI MONSTERGORYTUS — wonROCKET SPADEODE TO JOY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 271.5

PLACE

2 59.5

6 13

10 40.5

QUINELLA

2,6 312.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 113

2,10 478

6,10 68.5

FORECAST

2,6 1,255

TIERCE

2,6,10 12,984

TRIO

2,6,10 1,027

FIRST 4

2,6,7,10 2,326

QUARTET

2,6,10,7 86,242

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 38.5

A2

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

12>1,4,5/2,6,10 30,576

8TH DOUBLE

1/2 1,084

1/6 20

SIX UP

1,10/11,12/3,10/4,9/1,4,5/2,6 3,357

1/11/10/4/1/2 1,964,932

2 [J Moreira]

TREBLE

4/1/2 4,279

4/1/6 101