Happy Valley · 2022-04-20 · 21:16
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2022-04-20 was Class 3 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. BLASTOISE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A T Millard, won by 1/2, with SUPERBELLA second and S J TOURBILLON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite RISE BRETHREN finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | BLASTOISE Closed strongly 2.15.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A T Millard | J Moreira | A T Millard | 6 | 5.7 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | SUPERBELLA Closed strongly B/TT B Shinn · F C Lor | B Shinn | F C Lor | 3 | 11.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | S J TOURBILLON Closed strongly A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 8 | 33.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | SUPER OASIS B/H/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 4 | 12.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | NORDIC SKY SR/XB R Maia · A T Millard | R Maia | A T Millard | 7 | 5.9 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | RISE BRETHREN Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 1 | 2.6 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | VINCY SR/TT H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 2 | 7.9 | 6 |
| 8 | 5 | CINQUANTE CINQ Closed strongly B- L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 11 | 54.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | MAJESTIC VICTORY TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 9 | 16.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | EXCEPTIONAL NICE B/E/TT K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 10 | 16.0 | 27 |
| 11 | 11 | KING TOURBILLON Led early B/TT C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 5 | 65.0 | 33 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | RISE BRETHREN | 35.1% | 2.85 | 6 |
| 2 | 10 | BLASTOISE | 18.4% | 5.44 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | SUPERBELLA | 12.0% | 8.34 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | SUPER OASIS | 7.6% | 13.23 | 4 |
| 5 | 4 | MAJESTIC VICTORY | 6.7% | 14.97 | 9 |
| 6 | 7 | VINCY | 5.3% | 19.03 | 7 |
| 7 | 8 | EXCEPTIONAL NICE | 4.0% | 24.84 | 10 |
| 8 | 9 | NORDIC SKY | 3.8% | 25.99 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 | S J TOURBILLON | 2.8% | 36.17 | 3 |
| 10 | 11 | KING TOURBILLON | 2.7% | 36.54 | 11 |
| 11 | 5 | CINQUANTE CINQ | 1.6% | 61.70 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 57.5
PLACE
2 85.5
3 30
10 19
QUINELLA
3,10 324.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 487
2,10 301
3,10 98.5
FORECAST
10,3 574
TIERCE
10,3,2 14,500
TRIO
2,3,10 3,590
FIRST 4
2,3,6,10 8,507
QUARTET
10,3,2,6 157,662
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 18
A3 —
5TH DOUBLE
11/3 199
11/10 703.5