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Happy Valley · 2022-04-20 · 21:46

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 10 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2022-04-20 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SMART IDEA, ridden by H Bentley and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with STORMTROUPER second and HAPPY SHARING third. The 3.4 favourite MAGIC PHOENIX finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.82
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 SMART IDEA H/TT 1.09.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · F C Lor 5 6.0 SH
2 9 STORMTROUPER TT M F Poon · C H Yip 6 6.8 SH
3 10 HAPPY SHARING TT A Badel · K L Man 3 8.9 1-1/4
4 3 GOODLUCK GOODLUCK K C Leung · W Y So 2 26.0 2-1/4
5 1 MAGIC PHOENIX TT Z Purton · K H Ting 7 3.4 2-1/4
6 2 SCOTCH TYCOON H K Teetan · K W Lui 8 5.3 3-1/4
7 7 EXUBERANT B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 9 19.0 3-1/2
8 5 ESCAPE ROUTE H V Borges · J Size 1 35.0 4
9 6 YO BEAUTY CP/H/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 4 5.7 4
10 8 SUNSET WATCH B2/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 10 59.0 6

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SMART IDEA2. STORMTROUPER+0.1L3. HAPPY SHARING+1.25L4. GOODLUCK GOODLUCK+2.25L5. MAGIC PHOENIX+2.25L6. SCOTCH TYCOON+3.25L7. EXUBERANT+3.5L8. ESCAPE ROUTE+4L9. YO BEAUTY+4L10. SUNSET WATCH+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick SCOTCH TYCOON (23.1%) finished 6th — the winner SMART IDEA was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SCOTCH TYCOON 23.1% 4.33 6
2 6 YO BEAUTY 16.4% 6.11 9
3 1 MAGIC PHOENIX 15.5% 6.44 5
4 9 STORMTROUPER 12.7% 7.86 2
5 4 SMART IDEA 12.2% 8.21 1
6 10 HAPPY SHARING 7.6% 13.19 3
7 3 GOODLUCK GOODLUCK 4.5% 22.28 4
8 5 ESCAPE ROUTE 3.7% 26.93 8
9 7 EXUBERANT 3.0% 32.88 7
10 8 SUNSET WATCH 1.3% 77.13 10
SCOTCH TYCOONYO BEAUTYMAGIC PHOENIXSTORMTROUPERSMART IDEA — wonHAPPY SHARINGGOODLUCK GOODLUCKESCAPE ROUTEEXUBERANTSUNSET WATCH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 60

PLACE

4 19.5

9 19.5

10 23.5

QUINELLA

4,9 192

QUINELLA PLACE

4,9 67

4,10 74.5

9,10 100.5

FORECAST

4,9 402

TIERCE

4,9,10 3,536

TRIO

4,9,10 539

FIRST 4

3,4,9,10 2,014

QUARTET

4,9,10,3 36,502

All pools (5 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,10/4,9,10 123,656

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 28.5

6TH DOUBLE

10/4 390.5

10/9 78.5

TRIPLE TRIO

10,11,12/2,3,10/4,9,10 4,072,507

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

10,11,12/2,3,10/Any Combination 35,514