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Happy Valley · 2022-04-20 · 20:16

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2022-04-20 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SUPER MISSION, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with HERCULES second and DURHAM STAR third. The 2.9 favourite WHISKEY NEAT finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.09.96
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 SUPER MISSION H/TT 1.09.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P F Yiu 8 4.2 1-1/4
2 10 HERCULES B/XB/TT K Teetan · C H Yip 12 12.0 1-1/4
3 5 DURHAM STAR SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 11 5.9 1-3/4
4 11 PEAK TO PEAK V/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 2 6.4 2
5 2 SO AWESOME B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 10 35.0 2-1/4
6 12 WHISKEY NEAT TT J Moreira · C Fownes 5 2.9 2-1/2
7 4 MASTER OF LUCK H1/TT1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 39.0 3-1/2
8 7 AURORA HERO B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 4 24.0 4-1/2
9 9 HAPPY MATADOR B/XB1/TT R Maia · R Gibson 3 40.0 5-1/2
10 3 HAPPY SOUL CP1/TT A Badel · C S Shum 7 35.0 6
11 6 OVERSUBSCRIBED XB L Currie · D J Hall 1 17.0 9
12 8 HANDSOME GUYS C L Chau · Y S Tsui 6 35.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER MISSION2. HERCULES+1.25L3. DURHAM STAR+1.75L4. PEAK TO PEAK+2L5. SO AWESOME+2.25L6. WHISKEY NEAT+2.5L7. MASTER OF LUCK+3.5L8. AURORA HERO+4.5L9. HAPPY MATADOR+5.5L10. HAPPY SOUL+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick WHISKEY NEAT (24.4%) finished 6th — the winner SUPER MISSION was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 WHISKEY NEAT 24.4% 4.09 6
2 11 PEAK TO PEAK 15.4% 6.49 4
3 6 OVERSUBSCRIBED 15.1% 6.61 11
4 1 SUPER MISSION 11.8% 8.48 1
5 5 DURHAM STAR 7.1% 14.08 3
6 10 HERCULES 6.9% 14.40 2
7 4 MASTER OF LUCK 4.9% 20.48 7
8 9 HAPPY MATADOR 4.9% 20.61 9
9 2 SO AWESOME 4.7% 21.27 5
10 7 AURORA HERO 2.5% 40.44 8
11 3 HAPPY SOUL 1.4% 69.97 10
12 8 HANDSOME GUYS 0.8% 118.10 12
WHISKEY NEATPEAK TO PEAKOVERSUBSCRIBEDSUPER MISSION — wonDURHAM STARHERCULESMASTER OF LUCKHAPPY MATADORSO AWESOMEAURORA HEROHAPPY SOULHANDSOME GUYS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 42.5

PLACE

1 15

5 23.5

10 33

QUINELLA

1,10 277.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 51

1,10 91

5,10 109.5

FORECAST

1,10 422

TIERCE

1,10,5 1,667

TRIO

1,5,10 365

FIRST 4

1,5,10,11 442

QUARTET

1,10,5,11 8,045

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 26.5

3RD DOUBLE

3/1 185

3/10 77.5