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Sha Tin · 2022-06-05 · 13:46

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.65
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 TUCHEL Closed strongly 1.21.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 12 2.9 2
2 0 RAINBOW LIGHT Closed strongly B/TT R Maia · D J Whyte 6 7.9 2
3 0 VOYAGE STAR Closed strongly V/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 11 8.3 3-1/4
4 0 PLIKCLONE Closed strongly B2 L Ferraris · D J Hall 4 6.1 4
5 0 YOUNG VICTORY Led early TT M F Poon · W Y So 7 15.0 4-1/4
6 0 COLONEL H Bentley · P F Yiu 2 5.4 5-1/2
7 0 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT V Borges · Y S Tsui 10 48.0 5-3/4
8 0 EZRA Closed strongly B K Teetan · A T Millard 3 13.0 6-1/2
9 0 PEAK TO PEAK V/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 8 12.0 8
10 0 KARUIZAWA Closed strongly B1/TT1 L Currie · C S Shum 1 74.0 9-3/4
11 0 COOLCELEB B/TT H T Mo · T P Yung 5 86.0 12-1/2
12 0 HAPPY MATADOR B/XB/TT A Hamelin · R Gibson 13 130.0 15-1/4
13 0 TSUEN WAN GLORY B A Badel · K L Man 9 93.0 15-3/4
— 0 AUGUST MOON K C Leung · P O'Sullivan — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-06-05 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. TUCHEL, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 2, with RAINBOW LIGHT second and VOYAGE STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TUCHEL—2. RAINBOW LIGHT+2L3. VOYAGE STAR+3.25L4. PLIKCLONE+4L5. YOUNG VICTORY+4.25L6. COLONEL+5.5L7. SUPERB DADDY+5.75L8. EZRA+6.5L9. PEAK TO PEAK+8L10. KARUIZAWA+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick TUCHEL (25.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 TUCHEL 25.9% 3.85 1
2 0 PEAK TO PEAK 11.5% 8.69 9
3 0 RAINBOW LIGHT 8.3% 11.98 2
4 0 KARUIZAWA 8.1% 12.34 10
5 0 VOYAGE STAR 8.1% 12.35 3
6 0 EZRA 7.5% 13.32 8
7 0 YOUNG VICTORY 7.2% 13.97 5
8 0 PLIKCLONE 6.8% 14.81 4
9 0 COOLCELEB 6.7% 14.93 11
10 0 COLONEL 4.3% 23.22 6
11 0 SUPERB DADDY 2.6% 39.14 7
12 0 HAPPY MATADOR 2.0% 50.48 12
13 0 TSUEN WAN GLORY 1.0% 96.52 13
TUCHEL — wonPEAK TO PEAKRAINBOW LIGHTKARUIZAWAVOYAGE STAREZRAYOUNG VICTORYPLIKCLONECOOLCELEBCOLONELSUPERB DADDYHAPPY MATADORTSUEN WAN GLORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 29.5

PLACE

3 26

6 16

7 26.5

QUINELLA

3,6 137.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 52.5

3,7 120.5

6,7 69.5

FORECAST

6,3 179

TIERCE

6,3,7 1,295

TRIO

3,6,7 406

FIRST 4

3,6,7,11 374

QUARTET

6,3,7,11 5,237

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

1/2,6 152.5

1/3 41.5

3 PICK 1

A1 29.5

A2 —

A3 —