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Sha Tin · 2022-06-05 · 15:11

Race 5

Class 4 FAST 1200m 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.08.42
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SUPER WIN DRAGON V/TT 1.08.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · W Y So 7 10.0 1-3/4
2 0 E BROTHER B/TT J Moreira · K L Man 2 3.8 1-3/4
3 0 THE BEST HERO B H W Lai · L Ho 4 8.4 3-1/2
4 0 LADY FIRST CP/H/XB/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 5 7.4 4
5 0 HAPPY TANGO B K C Leung · Y S Tsui 9 34.0 4-3/4
6 0 AHEAD A HEAD B A Badel · T P Yung 1 18.0 6
7 0 CELESTIAL STEED TT C L Chau · F C Lor 3 12.0 6-3/4
8 0 SMART FOLKS B M F Poon · C W Chang 12 10.0 7
9 0 TOUCH FAITH P L Currie · J Size 6 19.0 7-3/4
10 0 WISDOM PATCH PC/TT Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 11 12.0 9-1/4
11 0 PROSPEROUS WIN TT R Maia · P F Yiu 10 6.9 12-3/4
12 0 SUPER CLASS B L Ferraris · A T Millard 8 17.0 16-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-06-05 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on FAST going. SUPER WIN DRAGON, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by W Y So, won by 1-3/4, with E BROTHER second and THE BEST HERO third. The 3.8 favourite E BROTHER finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER WIN DRAGON—2. E BROTHER+1.75L3. THE BEST HERO+3.5L4. LADY FIRST+4L5. HAPPY TANGO+4.75L6. AHEAD A HEAD+6L7. CELESTIAL STEED+6.75L8. SMART FOLKS+7L9. TOUCH FAITH+7.75L10. WISDOM PATCH+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick E BROTHER (31.4%) finished 2nd — the winner SUPER WIN DRAGON was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 E BROTHER 31.4% 3.18 2
2 0 LADY FIRST 10.7% 9.32 4
3 0 WISDOM PATCH 9.8% 10.18 10
4 0 SUPER WIN DRAGON 7.9% 12.61 1
5 0 PROSPEROUS WIN 7.4% 13.54 11
6 0 TOUCH FAITH 7.1% 14.06 9
7 0 CELESTIAL STEED 6.6% 15.09 7
8 0 SMART FOLKS 5.7% 17.47 8
9 0 THE BEST HERO 5.0% 20.00 3
10 0 HAPPY TANGO 3.8% 26.01 5
11 0 AHEAD A HEAD 2.4% 41.36 6
12 0 SUPER CLASS 2.0% 50.83 12
E BROTHERLADY FIRSTWISDOM PATCHSUPER WIN DRAGON — wonPROSPEROUS WINTOUCH FAITHCELESTIAL STEEDSMART FOLKSTHE BEST HEROHAPPY TANGOAHEAD A HEADSUPER CLASS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 100.5

PLACE

2 30

5 24

10 15.5

QUINELLA

2,10 181

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 118

2,10 70.5

5,10 69.5

FORECAST

2,10 397

TIERCE

2,10,5 2,376

TRIO

2,5,10 307

FIRST 4

2,5,6,10 385

QUARTET

2,10,5,6 11,339

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 26.5

4TH DOUBLE

8/2 283

8/10 38