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Sha Tin · 2022-06-05 · 14:17

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GANG OF BROTHERS Wire to wire B 1.22.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 9 5.4 SH
2 0 KUNG FU TEA B L Ferraris · D J Hall 11 11.0 SH
3 0 FIERY DIAMOND Closed strongly C L Chau · T P Yung 6 9.9 3/4
4 0 HANG'S DECISION Closed strongly B C Y Ho · W Y So 5 20.0 1-3/4
5 0 HAPPY DAY TT J Moreira · W Y So 2 2.7 1-3/4
6 0 WOODFIRE BRO H1/TT M F Poon · L Ho 4 17.0 1-3/4
7 0 LOVE ME MORE CP R Maia · P F Yiu 7 20.0 1-3/4
8 0 DUBLIN STAR Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · K L Man 12 57.0 4-3/4
9 0 BUDDY SPIRIT B C Wong · C H Yip 1 68.0 6-1/4
10 0 HEARTY WISH SR/TT A Badel · D J Whyte 3 10.0 8-1/4
11 0 YOUNG EXPLORER CP1 A Hamelin · K H Ting 8 134.0 8-3/4
12 0 SUNSET WATCH Closed strongly B-/CP1/TT L Currie · D A Hayes 14 108.0 12
13 0 TUNG HAYE HAYE B/XB/TT V Borges · C S Shum 10 168.0 13-1/4
14 0 BRAVE DREAMS H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 13 6.2 13-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-06-05 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GANG OF BROTHERS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by SH, with KUNG FU TEA second and FIERY DIAMOND third. The winner led throughout. The 2.7 favourite HAPPY DAY finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GANG OF BROTHERS—2. KUNG FU TEA+0.1L3. FIERY DIAMOND+0.75L4. HANG'S DECISION+1.75L5. HAPPY DAY+1.75L6. WOODFIRE BRO+1.75L7. LOVE ME MORE+1.75L8. DUBLIN STAR+4.75L9. BUDDY SPIRIT+6.25L10. HEARTY WISH+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick HAPPY DAY (31.3%) finished 5th — the winner GANG OF BROTHERS was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 HAPPY DAY 31.3% 3.20 5
2 0 GANG OF BROTHERS 21.7% 4.61 1
3 0 BRAVE DREAMS 9.9% 10.10 14
4 0 FIERY DIAMOND 9.5% 10.54 3
5 0 HEARTY WISH 5.8% 17.19 10
6 0 WOODFIRE BRO 5.5% 18.32 6
7 0 KUNG FU TEA 5.4% 18.65 2
8 0 LOVE ME MORE 4.3% 23.42 7
9 0 DUBLIN STAR 1.9% 52.30 8
10 0 SUNSET WATCH 1.7% 60.05 12
11 0 HANG'S DECISION 1.5% 66.78 4
12 0 BUDDY SPIRIT 0.8% 123.69 9
13 0 YOUNG EXPLORER 0.5% 220.46 11
14 0 TUNG HAYE HAYE 0.4% 263.52 13
HAPPY DAYGANG OF BROTHERS — wonBRAVE DREAMSFIERY DIAMONDHEARTY WISHWOODFIRE BROKUNG FU TEALOVE ME MOREDUBLIN STARSUNSET WATCHHANG'S DECISIONBUDDY SPIRITYOUNG EXPLORERTUNG HAYE HAYE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 54

PLACE

6 32.5

8 18.5

9 32.5

QUINELLA

8,9 277

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 87.5

6,9 146.5

8,9 84

FORECAST

8,9 439

TIERCE

8,9,6 3,830

TRIO

6,8,9 892

FIRST 4

6,8,9,11 3,143

QUARTET

8,9,6,11 54,356

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,7>2,6/6,8,9 36,765

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 18

3RD DOUBLE

2,6/8 137.5

2,6/9 76