Happy Valley · 2022-06-08 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 3 YIELDING 2200m Course A 8 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2022-06-08 was Class 3 over 2200m, run on YIELDING going. RISE BRETHREN, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/4, with NATURAL STORM second and ABOVE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.7 favourite NATURAL STORM finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 2.18.35

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	3	RISE BRETHREN Closed strongly TT 2.18.35 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum	Z Purton	C S Shum	7	131 lb	6.5	1-1/4
2	8	NATURAL STORM Closed strongly V J Moreira · P F Yiu	J Moreira	P F Yiu	3	116 lb	2.7	1-1/4
3	2	ABOVE Closed strongly B/TT R Maia · A T Millard	R Maia	A T Millard	4	132 lb	9.6	2-3/4
4	7	BORN THE SAME DAY Closed strongly H A Badel · K W Lui	A Badel	K W Lui	1	114 lb	8.0	5-1/2
5	4	BLASTOISE L Ferraris · A T Millard	L Ferraris	A T Millard	6	122 lb	6.2	6-3/4
6	6	PERFECT MARYKNOLL Led early B/TT M F Poon · T P Yung	M F Poon	T P Yung	2	115 lb	6.2	8-1/2
7	1	SAVVY KINGMAN M Chadwick · F C Lor	M Chadwick	F C Lor	8	133 lb	13.0	11-3/4
8	5	CLASSIC ARCHI B L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	5	122 lb	13.0	13-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick NATURAL STORM (51.5%) finished 2nd — the winner RISE BRETHREN was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	8	NATURAL STORM	51.5%	1.94	2	2.7
2	1	SAVVY KINGMAN	11.6%	8.63	7	13.0
3	6	PERFECT MARYKNOLL	11.5%	8.71	6	6.2
4	3	RISE BRETHREN	9.5%	10.52	1	6.5
5	7	BORN THE SAME DAY	5.4%	18.68	4	8.0
6	4	BLASTOISE	4.7%	21.29	5	6.2
7	2	ABOVE	3.7%	27.35	3	9.6
8	5	CLASSIC ARCHI	2.2%	44.72	8	13.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 65

PLACE

2 24.5

3 21

8 13

QUINELLA

3,8 85.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 90.5

2,8 48

3,8 34

FORECAST

3,8 235

TIERCE

3,8,2 1,039

TRIO

2,3,8 208

FIRST 4

2,3,7,8 267

QUARTET

3,8,2,7 6,397

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 24

A1 —

A3 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 2200m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99