Happy Valley · 2022-06-08 · 19:45

Race 3

Class 2 YIELDING 1800m Course A 7 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-06-08 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on YIELDING going. SOULMATE, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by P F Yiu, won by SH, with MONEY CATCHER second and GORYTUS third. The winner led throughout. The 3.7 favourite MONEY CATCHER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.51.72

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	5	SOULMATE Wire to wire E 1.51.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · P F Yiu	L Hewitson	P F Yiu	2	125 lb	6.6	SH
2	2	MONEY CATCHER CP K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	7	126 lb	3.7	SH
3	7	GORYTUS Closed strongly XB/TT A Badel · C S Shum	A Badel	C S Shum	5	118 lb	5.3	1/2
4	3	BELUGA H Z Purton · D J Hall	Z Purton	D J Hall	1	125 lb	3.7	1-1/4
5	1	SAVAQUIN Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	4	127 lb	6.3	1-3/4
6	6	TIANCHI MONSTER M Chadwick · W Y So	M Chadwick	W Y So	3	119 lb	8.7	2-1/4
7	4	CHARITY GO SR M F Poon · C S Shum	M F Poon	C S Shum	6	123 lb	16.0	4-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick SOULMATE (30.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	5	SOULMATE	30.7%	3.26	1	6.6
2	2	MONEY CATCHER	17.6%	5.69	2	3.7
3	1	SAVAQUIN	16.1%	6.21	5	6.3
4	3	BELUGA	14.2%	7.04	4	3.7
5	6	TIANCHI MONSTER	9.6%	10.39	6	8.7
6	7	GORYTUS	8.2%	12.17	3	5.3
7	4	CHARITY GO	3.6%	28.08	7	16.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 66

PLACE

2 15.5

5 19.5

7 17.5

QUINELLA

2,5 120.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 45

2,7 33

5,7 47.5

FORECAST

5,2 364

TIERCE

5,2,7 1,009

TRIO

2,5,7 132

FIRST 4

2,3,5,7 95

QUARTET

5,2,7,3 2,965

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

3/2 113

3/5 1,064

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 20

A3 —

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