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Happy Valley · 2022-06-08 · 19:16

Race 2

Class 5 YIELDING 1650m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.43.23
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CORDYCEPS ONE Closed strongly H/B2 1.43.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · K W Lui 11 19.0 1-1/4
2 0 NOBLE MAN Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · K L Man 2 7.0 1-1/4
3 0 CIRCUIT ELITE Closed strongly CP/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 1 7.5 1-3/4
4 0 SMILING FACE Closed strongly SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 12 8.0 1-3/4
5 0 GARLIC HERO Closed strongly E/TT M F Poon · C H Yip 6 21.0 4-1/4
6 0 WONDERFUL TIGER H/TT V Borges · R Gibson 4 12.0 4-1/2
7 0 SEA MONARCH H W Lai · C W Chang 5 9.8 5
8 0 MISTER ARM Led early M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 7 15.0 6-1/4
9 0 THIS IS CHARISMA CP Z Purton · D J Hall 3 4.4 7
10 0 CABLE SPEED P/TT1 H T Mo · T P Yung 10 51.0 10
11 0 STRATHMORETOO B K C Leung · A T Millard 8 29.0 10-3/4
12 0 DAILY BEAUTY TT J Moreira · C Fownes 9 5.4 11-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2022-06-08 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on YIELDING going. CORDYCEPS ONE, ridden by R Maia and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/4, with NOBLE MAN second and CIRCUIT ELITE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite THIS IS CHARISMA finished 9th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CORDYCEPS ONE—2. NOBLE MAN+1.25L3. CIRCUIT ELITE+1.75L4. SMILING FACE+1.75L5. GARLIC HERO+4.25L6. WONDERFUL TIGER+4.5L7. SEA MONARCH+5L8. MISTER ARM+6.25L9. THIS IS CHARISMA+7L10. CABLE SPEED+10L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick THIS IS CHARISMA (18.0%) finished 9th — the winner CORDYCEPS ONE was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 THIS IS CHARISMA 18.0% 5.55 9
2 0 SMILING FACE 16.5% 6.06 4
3 0 DAILY BEAUTY 15.9% 6.28 12
4 0 NOBLE MAN 9.9% 10.15 2
5 0 WONDERFUL TIGER 9.3% 10.80 6
6 0 CIRCUIT ELITE 8.1% 12.29 3
7 0 MISTER ARM 6.0% 16.54 8
8 0 CORDYCEPS ONE 5.0% 19.84 1
9 0 SEA MONARCH 4.2% 23.99 7
10 0 GARLIC HERO 2.7% 37.41 5
11 0 CABLE SPEED 2.3% 43.19 10
12 0 STRATHMORETOO 2.1% 48.37 11
THIS IS CHARISMASMILING FACEDAILY BEAUTYNOBLE MANWONDERFUL TIGERCIRCUIT ELITEMISTER ARMCORDYCEPS ONE — wonSEA MONARCHGARLIC HEROCABLE SPEEDSTRATHMORETOO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 190.5

PLACE

2 25

3 56

9 27

QUINELLA

3,9 786

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 212

2,9 92.5

3,9 255.5

FORECAST

3,9 1,964

TIERCE

3,9,2 14,734

TRIO

2,3,9 1,910

FIRST 4

2,3,7,9 3,965

QUARTET

3,9,2,7 118,491

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

3/3 760.5

3/9 121

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 20.5

A2 —