Happy Valley · 2022-06-08 · 21:46

Race 7

Class 4 YIELDING 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2022-06-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on YIELDING going. EXCELLENT PEERS, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with SUGAR SUGAR second and SEE U AGAIN third. Victory came as the 2.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.11.87

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	EXCELLENT PEERS H/XB 1.11.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor	J Moreira	F C Lor	2	131 lb	2.4	3/4
2	10	SUGAR SUGAR B/TT A Badel · C Fownes	A Badel	C Fownes	12	120 lb	20.0	3/4
3	5	SEE U AGAIN H- Z Purton · C S Shum	Z Purton	C S Shum	8	127 lb	5.4	3-1/2
4	7	MASTER OF LUCK H/TT L Ferraris · K W Lui	L Ferraris	K W Lui	6	125 lb	31.0	3-1/2
5	8	AEROVERSARY B C Y Ho · P O'Sullivan	C Y Ho	P O'Sullivan	1	124 lb	62.0	3-1/2
6	11	SIXTH GENERATION B R Maia · C H Yip	R Maia	C H Yip	4	119 lb	9.7	7-1/4
7	6	MANAGEMENT FOLKS H T Mo · D J Hall	H T Mo	D J Hall	10	123 lb	118.0	7-1/4
8	4	HOLI MOLI B1 L Currie · D A Hayes	L Currie	D A Hayes	3	127 lb	12.0	8
9	3	UTOPIA LIFE B K C Leung · Y S Tsui	K C Leung	Y S Tsui	11	128 lb	14.0	8-1/4
10	12	THE GOOD DEAL H/TT V Borges · C W Chang	V Borges	C W Chang	5	115 lb	45.0	8-3/4
11	9	LUCKY RUBY B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man	M Chadwick	K L Man	9	124 lb	20.0	15-1/2
12	1	MIGHTY VALOR L Hewitson · P F Yiu	L Hewitson	P F Yiu	7	133 lb	5.1	16-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick EXCELLENT PEERS (35.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	EXCELLENT PEERS	35.9%	2.79	1	2.4
2	5	SEE U AGAIN	21.4%	4.67	3	5.4
3	11	SIXTH GENERATION	8.1%	12.28	6	9.7
4	10	SUGAR SUGAR	6.5%	15.39	2	20.0
5	4	HOLI MOLI	5.5%	18.26	8	12.0
6	3	UTOPIA LIFE	5.3%	18.76	9	14.0
7	12	THE GOOD DEAL	4.5%	22.14	10	45.0
8	9	LUCKY RUBY	3.5%	28.91	11	20.0
9	1	MIGHTY VALOR	3.3%	29.86	12	5.1
10	7	MASTER OF LUCK	2.8%	35.17	4	31.0
11	6	MANAGEMENT FOLKS	1.6%	61.83	7	118.0
12	8	AEROVERSARY	1.5%	67.48	5	62.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 24.5

PLACE

2 11.5

5 18

10 45

QUINELLA

2,10 239.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 27.5

2,10 78

5,10 141.5

FORECAST

2,10 349

TIERCE

2,10,5 1,402

TRIO

2,5,10 280

FIRST 4

2,5,7,10 1,197

QUARTET

2,10,5,7 19,581

All pools (5 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

8>4,7,12/2,5,10 6,057

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 17

A3 —

6TH DOUBLE

12/2 138.5

12/10 187.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,2,4/8>4,7,12/2,5,10 63,376

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,2,4/8>4,7,12/Any Combination 531

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