Happy Valley · 2022-06-08 · 20:46

Race 5

Class 4 YIELDING 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-06-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on YIELDING going. STOICISM, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by R Gibson, won by SH, with LESLIE second and HARDLY SWEARS third. The 4.5 favourite LESLIE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.11.48

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	STOICISM CP-/B1/TT 1.11.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · R Gibson	L Ferraris	R Gibson	1	133 lb	6.1	SH
2	2	LESLIE B J Moreira · P F Yiu	J Moreira	P F Yiu	4	128 lb	4.5	SH
3	4	HARDLY SWEARS C Y Ho · K H Ting	C Y Ho	K H Ting	2	126 lb	6.5	1
4	11	HARRIER JET B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan	M Chadwick	P O'Sullivan	3	115 lb	5.6	1-1/2
5	12	ISLAND SURPRISE TT A Badel · K L Man	A Badel	K L Man	11	115 lb	9.2	1-3/4
6	3	HAPPY LAND XB-/TT C L Chau · T P Yung	C L Chau	T P Yung	7	123 lb	18.0	2
7	6	SHINING FORTUNE H Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	8	125 lb	6.7	4-1/4
8	7	OVERSUBSCRIBED XB K C Leung · D J Hall	K C Leung	D J Hall	12	124 lb	28.0	6
9	9	JAZZ STEED V/TT M F Poon · C Fownes	M F Poon	C Fownes	6	119 lb	17.0	6-1/2
10	10	GLORIFIED FIRE B- R Maia · C H Yip	R Maia	C H Yip	9	119 lb	26.0	7
11	5	OCTOCONNECT B1 H W Lai · Y S Tsui	H W Lai	Y S Tsui	5	125 lb	68.0	8-3/4
12	8	BIRDSVILLE B-/SR1/TT L Currie · D A Hayes	L Currie	D A Hayes	10	122 lb	24.0	9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick LESLIE (18.9%) finished 2nd — the winner STOICISM was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	LESLIE	18.9%	5.29	2	4.5
2	1	STOICISM	15.5%	6.45	1	6.1
3	6	SHINING FORTUNE	13.3%	7.52	7	6.7
4	11	HARRIER JET	8.7%	11.52	4	5.6
5	4	HARDLY SWEARS	8.2%	12.20	3	6.5
6	9	JAZZ STEED	7.6%	13.15	9	17.0
7	12	ISLAND SURPRISE	6.2%	16.24	5	9.2
8	3	HAPPY LAND	5.8%	17.14	6	18.0
9	8	BIRDSVILLE	5.1%	19.63	12	24.0
10	10	GLORIFIED FIRE	4.5%	22.11	10	26.0
11	7	OVERSUBSCRIBED	4.2%	23.93	8	28.0
12	5	OCTOCONNECT	2.0%	49.23	11	68.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 61.5

PLACE

1 20.5

2 18.5

4 20.5

QUINELLA

1,2 136

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 48.5

1,4 55

2,4 53.5

FORECAST

1,2 307

TIERCE

1,2,4 1,073

TRIO

1,2,4 166

FIRST 4

1,2,4,11 204

QUARTET

1,2,4,11 5,030

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,4/1,2,4 8,285

3 PICK 1

A1 26

A2 —

A3 —

4TH DOUBLE

4/1 906

4/2 130.5

← Race 4 Race 6 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 1200m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99