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Sha Tin · 2022-06-12 · 17:13

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-06-12 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. KEEFY, ridden by J Moreira and trained by F C Lor, won by 2-1/4, with ESCAPE ROUTE second and DECRYPT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.06
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 KEEFY Closed strongly 1.22.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · F C Lor 14 3.1 2-1/4
2 8 ESCAPE ROUTE Closed strongly H A Badel · J Size 8 6.0 2-1/4
3 5 DECRYPT Closed strongly TT A Hamelin · D A Hayes 1 7.8 2-1/2
4 1 CAPTAIN WIN Closed strongly XB Z Purton · D J Hall 13 4.3 2-1/2
5 10 SUPER WINNER Led early TT H Bentley · C H Yip 5 10.0 2-3/4
6 12 THE HULK Closed strongly R Maia · C Fownes 10 31.0 3-1/2
7 6 GOLDEN LINK M Chadwick · P F Yiu 4 11.0 4-1/4
8 11 ENCOUNTERED TT1 M F Poon · K L Man 6 134.0 4-3/4
9 14 HIGH CLOUD XB/SR1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 9 45.0 5-3/4
10 2 KASA PAPA CP1 K C Leung · T P Yung 12 22.0 8-1/2
11 9 GALLANT CROWN Closed strongly B/TT H T Mo · A T Millard 11 77.0 10
12 4 MASTER HERO XB/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 2 18.0 11
13 13 GREAT BRILLIANT H W Lai · Y S Tsui 7 236.0 16-1/4
14 7 MOONLIGHT VISTA L Currie · C S Shum 3 180.0 18-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KEEFY2. ESCAPE ROUTE+2.25L3. DECRYPT+2.5L4. CAPTAIN WIN+2.5L5. SUPER WINNER+2.75L6. THE HULK+3.5L7. GOLDEN LINK+4.25L8. ENCOUNTERED+4.75L9. HIGH CLOUD+5.75L10. KASA PAPA+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick KEEFY (25.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 KEEFY 25.2% 3.97 1
2 1 CAPTAIN WIN 19.0% 5.25 4
3 8 ESCAPE ROUTE 11.8% 8.46 2
4 4 MASTER HERO 9.8% 10.23 12
5 6 GOLDEN LINK 6.8% 14.75 7
6 2 KASA PAPA 6.5% 15.29 10
7 10 SUPER WINNER 5.8% 17.39 5
8 5 DECRYPT 5.0% 19.86 3
9 12 THE HULK 3.0% 32.94 6
10 9 GALLANT CROWN 2.6% 38.51 11
11 14 HIGH CLOUD 2.1% 47.15 9
12 11 ENCOUNTERED 1.0% 100.15 8
13 7 MOONLIGHT VISTA 0.9% 109.06 14
14 13 GREAT BRILLIANT 0.4% 240.04 13
KEEFY — wonCAPTAIN WINESCAPE ROUTEMASTER HEROGOLDEN LINKKASA PAPASUPER WINNERDECRYPTTHE HULKGALLANT CROWNHIGH CLOUDENCOUNTEREDMOONLIGHT VISTAGREAT BRILLIANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 31.5

PLACE

3 14.5

5 24.5

8 20.5

QUINELLA

3,8 112.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 59

3,8 40.5

5,8 85.5

FORECAST

3,8 168

TIERCE

3,8,5 988

TRIO

3,5,8 255

FIRST 4

1,3,5,8 210

QUARTET

3,8,5,1 3,703

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 20.5

9TH DOUBLE

2/3 312

2/8 48