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Sha Tin · 2022-06-12 · 14:01

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2022-06-12 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SUPER AXIOM, ridden by H T Mo and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 2, with AMAZING ROCKY second and FORTE third. The 3.9 favourite FORTE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.55.51
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT 0.55.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · Y S Tsui 7 8.1 2
2 4 AMAZING ROCKY H M F Poon · T P Yung 10 10.0 2
3 1 FORTE XB/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 13 3.9 2
4 5 UNITED WE STAND B/TT C Wong · P O'Sullivan 5 33.0 2
5 7 ADEFILL CP1/TT1 K C Leung · P F Yiu 8 42.0 3-1/4
5 8 AMAZING INNOVATOR TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes 4 8.4 3-1/4
7 2 FLYING HIGH TT M Chadwick · W Y So 14 4.8 4-1/4
8 14 GOOD BEAUTY CP/TT V Borges · K L Man 3 55.0 4-1/2
9 9 HAPPY TRIO SR-/B1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 12 8.0 4-3/4
10 13 EL JEFE B/TT J Moreira · C H Yip 2 12.0 5-1/4
11 6 TIMESTORM XB/TT L Ferraris · D J Hall 1 11.0 5-1/2
12 12 DIAMOND SOARS L Currie · A T Millard 9 142.0 8-1/2
13 11 MANY WINS B R Maia · K W Lui 6 180.0 11-1/2
14 10 SUNSHINE LEGENDARY H-/CP A Badel · R Gibson 11 23.0 13-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER AXIOM2. AMAZING ROCKY+2L3. FORTE+2L4. UNITED WE STAND+2L5. ADEFILL+3.25L5. AMAZING INNOVATOR+3.25L7. FLYING HIGH+4.25L8. GOOD BEAUTY+4.5L9. HAPPY TRIO+4.75L10. EL JEFE+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick EL JEFE (25.7%) finished 10th — the winner SUPER AXIOM was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 13 EL JEFE 25.7% 3.90 10
2 1 FORTE 16.7% 6.00 3
3 3 SUPER AXIOM 11.4% 8.75 1
4 6 TIMESTORM 8.7% 11.56 11
5 8 AMAZING INNOVATOR 7.6% 13.13 5
6 7 ADEFILL 6.6% 15.11 5
7 2 FLYING HIGH 4.6% 21.55 7
8 9 HAPPY TRIO 4.5% 22.36 9
9 4 AMAZING ROCKY 4.0% 24.88 2
10 5 UNITED WE STAND 3.3% 29.86 4
11 10 SUNSHINE LEGENDARY 2.8% 36.17 14
12 14 GOOD BEAUTY 2.3% 42.86 8
13 12 DIAMOND SOARS 1.0% 96.99 12
14 11 MANY WINS 0.8% 133.28 13
EL JEFEFORTESUPER AXIOM — wonTIMESTORMAMAZING INNOVATORADEFILLFLYING HIGHHAPPY TRIOAMAZING ROCKYUNITED WE STANDSUNSHINE LEGENDARYGOOD BEAUTYDIAMOND SOARSMANY WINS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 81

PLACE

1 16.5

3 30.5

4 33

QUINELLA

3,4 405

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 85.5

1,4 93

3,4 156

FORECAST

3,4 947

TIERCE

3,4,1 4,787

TRIO

1,3,4 611

FIRST 4

1,3,4,5 3,376

QUARTET

3,4,1,5 86,509

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 22

3RD DOUBLE

9/3 925

9/4 206.5