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Sha Tin · 2022-06-19 · 15:06

Race 5

Group 3 GOOD 1800m Course A 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.48.27
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 TOURBILLON DIAMOND Closed strongly B/TT 1.48.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C S Shum 7 9.8 SH
2 0 TURIN REDSUN Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · D J Whyte 3 2.6 SH
3 0 BUTTERFIELD Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C S Shum 11 8.1 N
4 0 COLUMBUS COUNTY Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 5 15.0 1-1/4
5 0 SAVVY NINE Closed strongly B/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 10 21.0 1-1/2
6 0 CHAMPION'S WAY P/TT A Hamelin · J Size 4 14.0 4
7 0 KA YING STAR Led early V/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 6 7.6 5-1/4
8 0 MIGHTY GIANT B K C Leung · P F Yiu 2 46.0 5-1/2
9 0 EXCELLENT PROPOSAL B/E J Moreira · J Size 9 6.8 6
10 0 BERLIN TANGO B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 8 12.0 6-1/2
11 0 RELIABLE TEAM V-/B2 M Chadwick · F C Lor 1 19.0 9-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-06-19 was Group 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. TOURBILLON DIAMOND, ridden by A Badel and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with TURIN REDSUN second and BUTTERFIELD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite TURIN REDSUN finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TOURBILLON DIAMOND—2. TURIN REDSUN+0.1L3. BUTTERFIELD+0.05L4. COLUMBUS COUNTY+1.25L5. SAVVY NINE+1.5L6. CHAMPION'S WAY+4L7. KA YING STAR+5.25L8. MIGHTY GIANT+5.5L9. EXCELLENT PROPOSAL+6L10. BERLIN TANGO+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick EXCELLENT PROPOSAL (23.1%) finished 9th — the winner TOURBILLON DIAMOND was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 EXCELLENT PROPOSAL 23.1% 4.33 9
2 0 TURIN REDSUN 15.0% 6.68 2
3 0 BUTTERFIELD 13.4% 7.46 3
4 0 TOURBILLON DIAMOND 10.1% 9.86 1
5 0 KA YING STAR 8.6% 11.61 7
6 0 BERLIN TANGO 7.3% 13.67 10
7 0 CHAMPION'S WAY 6.9% 14.41 6
8 0 RELIABLE TEAM 4.8% 20.72 11
9 0 COLUMBUS COUNTY 4.7% 21.11 4
10 0 SAVVY NINE 3.9% 25.56 5
11 0 MIGHTY GIANT 2.0% 49.31 8
EXCELLENT PROPOSALTURIN REDSUNBUTTERFIELDTOURBILLON DIAMOND — wonKA YING STARBERLIN TANGOCHAMPION'S WAYRELIABLE TEAMCOLUMBUS COUNTYSAVVY NINEMIGHTY GIANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 98.5

PLACE

2 25.5

9 26

10 13

QUINELLA

2,10 127.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 116

2,10 54.5

9,10 49.5

FORECAST

2,10 330

TIERCE

2,10,9 2,012

TRIO

2,9,10 333

FIRST 4

2,7,9,10 864

QUARTET

2,10,9,7 22,552

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 —

A3 25.5

4TH DOUBLE

5/2 542

5/10 54.5

WINNING TRAINER

B2 —

B4 27.5

B1 —

B3 —