Sha Tin · 2022-06-19 · 15:06
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2022-06-19 was Group 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. TOURBILLON DIAMOND, ridden by A Badel and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with TURIN REDSUN second and BUTTERFIELD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite TURIN REDSUN finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND Closed strongly B/TT 1.48.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 7 | 9.8 | SH |
| 2 | 10 | TURIN REDSUN Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · D J Whyte | M F Poon | D J Whyte | 3 | 2.6 | SH |
| 3 | 9 | BUTTERFIELD Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 11 | 8.1 | N |
| 4 | 7 | COLUMBUS COUNTY Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 5 | 15.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | SAVVY NINE Closed strongly B/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 10 | 21.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | CHAMPION'S WAY P/TT A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 4 | 14.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 1 | KA YING STAR Led early V/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz | L Ferraris | A S Cruz | 6 | 7.6 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | MIGHTY GIANT B K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 2 | 46.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 5 | EXCELLENT PROPOSAL B/E J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 9 | 6.8 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | BERLIN TANGO B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 8 | 12.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 8 | RELIABLE TEAM V-/B2 M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 1 | 19.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | EXCELLENT PROPOSAL | 23.1% | 4.33 | 9 |
| 2 | 10 | TURIN REDSUN | 15.0% | 6.68 | 2 |
| 3 | 9 | BUTTERFIELD | 13.4% | 7.46 | 3 |
| 4 | 2 | TOURBILLON DIAMOND | 10.1% | 9.86 | 1 |
| 5 | 1 | KA YING STAR | 8.6% | 11.61 | 7 |
| 6 | 11 | BERLIN TANGO | 7.3% | 13.67 | 10 |
| 7 | 4 | CHAMPION'S WAY | 6.9% | 14.41 | 6 |
| 8 | 8 | RELIABLE TEAM | 4.8% | 20.72 | 11 |
| 9 | 7 | COLUMBUS COUNTY | 4.7% | 21.11 | 4 |
| 10 | 6 | SAVVY NINE | 3.9% | 25.56 | 5 |
| 11 | 3 | MIGHTY GIANT | 2.0% | 49.31 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 98.5
PLACE
2 25.5
9 26
10 13
QUINELLA
2,10 127.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,9 116
2,10 54.5
9,10 49.5
FORECAST
2,10 330
TIERCE
2,10,9 2,012
TRIO
2,9,10 333
FIRST 4
2,7,9,10 864
QUARTET
2,10,9,7 22,552
All pools (3 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 25.5
A1 —
A2 —
4TH DOUBLE
5/2 542
5/10 54.5
WINNING TRAINER
B4 27.5
B1 —
B3 —
B2 —