Sha Tin · 2022-06-19 · 14:00

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2022-06-19 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIA VANES, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1/2, with BEAUTY TYCOON second and HAPPY FAT CAT third. The 1.7 favourite BEAUTY TYCOON finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.23

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	3	CALIFORNIA VANES B/TT 1.10.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz	Z Purton	A S Cruz	7	128 lb	3.7	1/2
2	2	BEAUTY TYCOON J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	13	131 lb	1.7	1/2
3	13	HAPPY FAT CAT H Bentley · A T Millard	H Bentley	A T Millard	1	119 lb	24.0	1-1/4
4	10	COMPASSION SUPER M F Poon · K L Man	M F Poon	K L Man	3	124 lb	42.0	1-3/4
5	12	REGENT GLORY L Currie · D A Hayes	L Currie	D A Hayes	12	124 lb	9.4	3-1/4
6	6	KING ECCELLENTE SR/XB/H1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	8	128 lb	38.0	3-1/4
7	7	OVER THE MOON B1/TT1 C Y Ho · C Fownes	C Y Ho	C Fownes	6	128 lb	62.0	3-1/4
8	4	HAPPY HERO B1 R Maia · C H Yip	R Maia	C H Yip	2	128 lb	55.0	3-1/4
9	8	SEATOSKY H1 K C Leung · P F Yiu	K C Leung	P F Yiu	4	128 lb	25.0	5-1/2
10	1	EASY SNIP CP1/TT C L Chau · T P Yung	C L Chau	T P Yung	10	130 lb	19.0	6
11	14	SPLENDID STAR H T Mo · L Ho	H T Mo	L Ho	11	115 lb	209.0	6-1/4
12	5	KARUIZAWA B/TT A Badel · C S Shum	A Badel	C S Shum	5	128 lb	123.0	6-3/4
13	9	STAND UP K Teetan · F C Lor	K Teetan	F C Lor	14	128 lb	67.0	10
14	11	DREAM CATCHER K H Chan · K H Ting	K H Chan	K H Ting	9	121 lb	184.0	16-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick BEAUTY TYCOON (28.0%) finished 2nd — the winner CALIFORNIA VANES was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	BEAUTY TYCOON	28.0%	3.57	2	1.7
2	3	CALIFORNIA VANES	26.9%	3.72	1	3.7
3	12	REGENT GLORY	8.0%	12.53	5	9.4
4	7	OVER THE MOON	7.5%	13.27	7	62.0
5	8	SEATOSKY	5.2%	19.05	9	25.0
6	9	STAND UP	4.5%	22.00	13	67.0
7	4	HAPPY HERO	4.2%	23.96	8	55.0
8	5	KARUIZAWA	3.1%	32.75	12	123.0
9	6	KING ECCELLENTE	3.0%	33.89	6	38.0
10	10	COMPASSION SUPER	2.7%	36.44	4	42.0
11	13	HAPPY FAT CAT	2.2%	45.88	3	24.0
12	1	EASY SNIP	2.0%	48.97	10	19.0
13	11	DREAM CATCHER	1.8%	54.47	14	184.0
14	14	SPLENDID STAR	0.8%	120.47	11	209.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 37

PLACE

2 10.1

3 13.5

13 39.5

QUINELLA

2,3 26

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 15.5

2,13 56

3,13 73.5

FORECAST

3,2 86

TIERCE

3,2,13 598

TRIO

2,3,13 116

FIRST 4

2,3,10,13 502

QUARTET

3,2,13,10 5,748

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

5/2 10.5

5/3 92.5

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 24

A1 —

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