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Sha Tin · 2022-06-19 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2022-06-19 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY EIGHT, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P F Yiu, won by 2-1/4, with CHICKEN DANCE second and LUCK STAR third. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.87
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 LUCKY EIGHT 1.09.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P F Yiu 7 2.3 2-1/4
2 7 CHICKEN DANCE B J Moreira · P O'Sullivan 6 17.0 2-1/4
3 12 LUCK STAR H- C L Chau · T P Yung 1 7.9 3
4 1 TURBO POWER Z Purton · K W Lui 2 9.1 3-1/4
5 10 JIANGXI STAMINA B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 11 19.0 3-3/4
6 13 UNIVERSAL CROWN B L Hewitson · D J Whyte 10 17.0 4-3/4
7 3 HAPPY TANGO B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 8 64.0 5-3/4
8 11 INFINITY WIN TT L Currie · D A Hayes 3 7.1 6-1/4
9 6 MIGHTY STAR B1/H1/TT1 M F Poon · A S Cruz 12 105.0 7
10 8 EASY LIFE CP1/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 9 74.0 8
11 9 FIGHTING STAR B/XB/TT B Shinn · C H Yip 5 13.0 9
12 4 KOKUSHI MUSOU H/TT A Badel · C Fownes 14 20.0 12
13 14 SUPER KINGDOM B R Maia · A T Millard 13 137.0 12-1/2
14 2 BLISSFUL LIFE TT K C Leung · K L Man 4 13.0 13

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY EIGHT2. CHICKEN DANCE+2.25L3. LUCK STAR+3L4. TURBO POWER+3.25L5. JIANGXI STAMINA+3.75L6. UNIVERSAL CROWN+4.75L7. HAPPY TANGO+5.75L8. INFINITY WIN+6.25L9. MIGHTY STAR+7L10. EASY LIFE+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick TURBO POWER (18.2%) finished 4th — the winner LUCKY EIGHT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 TURBO POWER 18.2% 5.48 4
2 5 LUCKY EIGHT 12.6% 7.93 1
3 11 INFINITY WIN 9.6% 10.42 8
4 4 KOKUSHI MUSOU 9.5% 10.53 12
5 9 FIGHTING STAR 9.3% 10.75 11
6 13 UNIVERSAL CROWN 9.2% 10.89 6
7 7 CHICKEN DANCE 8.3% 12.11 2
8 6 MIGHTY STAR 7.5% 13.37 9
9 10 JIANGXI STAMINA 5.1% 19.43 5
10 3 HAPPY TANGO 4.7% 21.15 7
11 2 BLISSFUL LIFE 1.9% 51.67 14
12 14 SUPER KINGDOM 1.8% 54.40 13
13 8 EASY LIFE 1.2% 86.60 10
14 12 LUCK STAR 1.0% 98.18 3
TURBO POWERLUCKY EIGHT — wonINFINITY WINKOKUSHI MUSOUFIGHTING STARUNIVERSAL CROWNCHICKEN DANCEMIGHTY STARJIANGXI STAMINAHAPPY TANGOBLISSFUL LIFESUPER KINGDOMEASY LIFELUCK STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 23.5

PLACE

5 14

7 49.5

12 25

QUINELLA

5,7 210

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 84

5,12 53.5

7,12 217

FORECAST

5,7 478

TIERCE

5,7,12 2,887

TRIO

5,7,12 455

FIRST 4

1,5,7,12 1,142

QUARTET

5,7,12,1 23,649

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

12/5 410

12/7 368

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 20