Sha Tin · 2022-06-19 · 16:06
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-06-19 was Group 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY JOY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1, with LUCKY EXPRESS second and HEALTHY HAPPY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BEAUTY JOY Closed strongly H/TT 1.21.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 5 | 2.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | LUCKY EXPRESS Closed strongly B/E/TT A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 8 | 16.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | HEALTHY HAPPY V/TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 9 | 34.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | BLAZE WARRIOR Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 1 | 4.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | CHEERFUL DAYS Closed strongly B A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 2 | 12.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | LUCKY PATCH H/V C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | 6 | 8.4 | 6-1/4 |
| 7 | 1 | STRONGER SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 3 | 17.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT Led early CP/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 7 | 19.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 9 | 8 | SILVER EXPRESS B H Bentley · J Size | H Bentley | J Size | 4 | 14.0 | 13 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BEAUTY JOY | 38.0% | 2.63 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | BLAZE WARRIOR | 29.8% | 3.35 | 4 |
| 3 | 8 | SILVER EXPRESS | 6.1% | 16.50 | 9 |
| 4 | 2 | LUCKY PATCH | 6.0% | 16.58 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | CHEERFUL DAYS | 5.4% | 18.57 | 5 |
| 6 | 5 | HEALTHY HAPPY | 4.4% | 22.63 | 3 |
| 7 | 7 | CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT | 4.1% | 24.33 | 8 |
| 8 | 4 | LUCKY EXPRESS | 3.2% | 31.52 | 2 |
| 9 | 1 | STRONGER | 3.1% | 32.68 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 20
PLACE
3 12
4 31
5 75
QUINELLA
3,4 142
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 51.5
3,5 116
4,5 415.5
FORECAST
3,4 173
TIERCE
3,4,5 2,956
TRIO
3,4,5 1,028
FIRST 4
3,4,5,9 815
QUARTET
3,4,5,9 12,484
All pools (4 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,11/3,4,5 1,454,201
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 17.5
6TH DOUBLE
11/3 1,667
11/4 1,413.5
WINNING TRAINER
B3 —
B2 18
B1 —
B4 —