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Sha Tin · 2022-06-19 · 16:06

Race 7

Group 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 9 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2022-06-19 was Group 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY JOY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1, with LUCKY EXPRESS second and HEALTHY HAPPY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.55
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 BEAUTY JOY Closed strongly H/TT 1.21.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz 5 2.0 1
2 4 LUCKY EXPRESS Closed strongly B/E/TT A Hamelin · J Size 8 16.0 1
3 5 HEALTHY HAPPY V/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 9 34.0 2-1/4
4 9 BLAZE WARRIOR Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · J Size 1 4.0 2-1/2
5 6 CHEERFUL DAYS Closed strongly B A Badel · K W Lui 2 12.0 2-3/4
6 2 LUCKY PATCH H/V C L Chau · K W Lui 6 8.4 6-1/4
7 1 STRONGER SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 3 17.0 7-1/4
8 7 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT Led early CP/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 7 19.0 9-1/2
9 8 SILVER EXPRESS B H Bentley · J Size 4 14.0 13

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY JOY2. LUCKY EXPRESS+1L3. HEALTHY HAPPY+2.25L4. BLAZE WARRIOR+2.5L5. CHEERFUL DAYS+2.75L6. LUCKY PATCH+6.25L7. STRONGER+7.25L8. CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT+9.5L9. SILVER EXPRESS+13L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick BEAUTY JOY (38.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 BEAUTY JOY 38.0% 2.63 1
2 9 BLAZE WARRIOR 29.8% 3.35 4
3 8 SILVER EXPRESS 6.1% 16.50 9
4 2 LUCKY PATCH 6.0% 16.58 6
5 6 CHEERFUL DAYS 5.4% 18.57 5
6 5 HEALTHY HAPPY 4.4% 22.63 3
7 7 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT 4.1% 24.33 8
8 4 LUCKY EXPRESS 3.2% 31.52 2
9 1 STRONGER 3.1% 32.68 7
BEAUTY JOY — wonBLAZE WARRIORSILVER EXPRESSLUCKY PATCHCHEERFUL DAYSHEALTHY HAPPYCALIFORNIADEEPSHOTLUCKY EXPRESSSTRONGER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 20

PLACE

3 12

4 31

5 75

QUINELLA

3,4 142

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 51.5

3,5 116

4,5 415.5

FORECAST

3,4 173

TIERCE

3,4,5 2,956

TRIO

3,4,5 1,028

FIRST 4

3,4,5,9 815

QUARTET

3,4,5,9 12,484

All pools (4 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,11/3,4,5 1,454,201

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 17.5

6TH DOUBLE

11/3 1,667

11/4 1,413.5

WINNING TRAINER

B3

B2 18

B1

B4