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Sha Tin · 2022-06-19 · 17:13

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.50
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SAUVESTRE Closed strongly TT 1.21.50 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 6 6.6 3/4
2 0 KA YING EXCELLENT Closed strongly CP/TT H Bentley · T P Yung 10 25.0 3/4
3 0 MR ASCENDENCY Closed strongly CP1 K Teetan · P F Yiu 8 9.7 1-3/4
4 0 BEAUTY GLORY Led early H/TT L Ferraris · A S Cruz 1 12.0 2
5 0 TRIPLE TRIPLE Closed strongly CP/TT H W Lai · F C Lor 7 68.0 3-1/4
6 0 ERIMO B/H J Moreira · J Size 2 2.1 4-1/4
7 0 SUPER TEN Closed strongly SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 12 21.0 5
9 0 EN POINTE CP B Shinn · F C Lor 3 6.3 5-1/4
10 0 GRACYLOVE V M Chadwick · D J Hall 5 17.0 8
11 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT B M F Poon · K L Man 9 77.0 11-3/4
12 0 WEALTHY DELIGHT A Badel · J Size 11 75.0 15-1/4
13 0 COLOURFUL BARON B/TT H T Mo · R Gibson 13 209.0 18-3/4
— 0 SETANTA Closed strongly B/TT L Currie · D A Hayes — 17.0 5

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2022-06-19 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SAUVESTRE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with KA YING EXCELLENT second and MR ASCENDENCY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite ERIMO finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SAUVESTRE—2. KA YING EXCELLENT+0.75L3. MR ASCENDENCY+1.75L4. BEAUTY GLORY+2L5. TRIPLE TRIPLE+3.25L6. ERIMO+4.25L7. SUPER TEN+5L9. EN POINTE+5.25L10. GRACYLOVE+8L11. COMPASSION SPIRIT+11.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick ERIMO (40.4%) finished 6th — the winner SAUVESTRE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 ERIMO 40.4% 2.47 6
2 0 BEAUTY GLORY 11.6% 8.62 4
3 0 EN POINTE 10.8% 9.29 9
4 0 SAUVESTRE 9.6% 10.44 1
5 0 MR ASCENDENCY 5.8% 17.15 3
6 0 SETANTA 5.2% 19.21 —
7 0 GRACYLOVE 3.9% 25.32 10
8 0 KA YING EXCELLENT 3.8% 26.49 2
9 0 SUPER TEN 2.6% 38.16 7
10 0 TRIPLE TRIPLE 2.4% 41.11 5
11 0 WEALTHY DELIGHT 1.9% 52.15 12
12 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT 1.6% 64.26 11
13 0 COLOURFUL BARON 0.3% 304.06 13
ERIMOBEAUTY GLORYEN POINTESAUVESTRE — wonMR ASCENDENCYSETANTAGRACYLOVEKA YING EXCELLENTSUPER TENTRIPLE TRIPLEWEALTHY DELIGHTCOMPASSION SPIRITCOLOURFUL BARON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 66

PLACE

1 23

2 25.5

8 51.5

QUINELLA

1,8 917.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 95.5

1,8 225

2,8 269

FORECAST

1,8 1,457

TIERCE

1,8,2 11,854

TRIO

1,2,8 1,895

FIRST 4

1,2,5,8 3,764

QUARTET

1,8,2,5 89,344

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 16

8TH DOUBLE

1/1 166.5

1/8 93.5