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Sha Tin · 2022-06-19 · 13:01

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 2000m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 2.03.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 TURF BRILLIANT Closed strongly B 2.03.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · W Y So 3 9.2 N
2 0 HYPERION TREE B A Badel · F C Lor 8 9.6 N
3 0 FLASH FAMOUS Closed strongly B/TT B Shinn · C H Yip 14 31.0 1
4 0 SKY GEM Closed strongly K Teetan · C Fownes 5 6.7 1-1/4
5 0 CROWN AVENUE Closed strongly V- C L Chau · C H Yip 10 36.0 4
6 0 AMAZING BOY CP/TT Z Purton · C W Chang 2 4.0 4-1/2
7 0 FLYING MIGHTY Closed strongly B/TT L Currie · D J Hall 9 7.4 6-1/4
8 0 GO BALLISTIC SR/TT L Ferraris · R Gibson 6 29.0 6-1/2
9 0 FORTUNE PATROL B/H/XB R Maia · A T Millard 1 8.2 6-1/2
10 0 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE Closed strongly B C Wong · K H Ting 12 49.0 8-1/2
11 0 EEVEE B/TT J Moreira · D A Hayes 11 5.8 8-3/4
12 0 MAKE IT TURBO B L Hewitson · D J Hall 13 41.0 9-1/4
13 0 GREAT TREASURE K C Leung · Y S Tsui 7 37.0 16-1/2
14 0 ORIENTAL AMIGO Led early B/SR H T Mo · Y S Tsui 4 73.0 17-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2022-06-19 was Class 5 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. TURF BRILLIANT, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by W Y So, won by N, with HYPERION TREE second and FLASH FAMOUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite AMAZING BOY finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TURF BRILLIANT—2. HYPERION TREE+0.05L3. FLASH FAMOUS+1L4. SKY GEM+1.25L5. CROWN AVENUE+4L6. AMAZING BOY+4.5L7. FLYING MIGHTY+6.25L8. GO BALLISTIC+6.5L9. FORTUNE PATROL+6.5L10. WEALTHY EMPLOYEE+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick AMAZING BOY (20.4%) finished 6th — the winner TURF BRILLIANT was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 AMAZING BOY 20.4% 4.91 6
2 0 EEVEE 15.0% 6.69 11
3 0 HYPERION TREE 9.7% 10.30 2
4 0 FLYING MIGHTY 8.8% 11.36 7
5 0 SKY GEM 7.6% 13.23 4
6 0 TURF BRILLIANT 6.6% 15.12 1
7 0 FORTUNE PATROL 5.8% 17.12 9
8 0 CROWN AVENUE 5.7% 17.47 5
9 0 FLASH FAMOUS 5.7% 17.49 3
10 0 MAKE IT TURBO 4.8% 20.72 12
11 0 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 2.9% 34.87 10
12 0 GREAT TREASURE 2.7% 37.45 13
13 0 GO BALLISTIC 2.2% 44.65 8
14 0 ORIENTAL AMIGO 2.1% 47.51 14
AMAZING BOYEEVEEHYPERION TREEFLYING MIGHTYSKY GEMTURF BRILLIANT — wonFORTUNE PATROLCROWN AVENUEFLASH FAMOUSMAKE IT TURBOWEALTHY EMPLOYEEGREAT TREASUREGO BALLISTICORIENTAL AMIGO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 92

PLACE

1 37

11 71.5

12 30.5

QUINELLA

1,12 523

QUINELLA PLACE

1,11 498.5

1,12 169.5

11,12 411.5

FORECAST

12,1 1,082

TIERCE

12,1,11 23,643

TRIO

1,11,12 4,758

FIRST 4

1,8,11,12 7,511

QUARTET

12,1,11,8 175,171

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 25.5

A1 —

A2 —