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Happy Valley · 2022-07-06 · 19:46

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course A 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.75
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GO FOR TEA Wire to wire 1.40.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 12 4.8 2
2 0 MISTER ARM M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 9 9.9 2
3 0 FLASH FAMOUS Closed strongly B/TT B Shinn · C H Yip 3 3.7 3
4 0 ORIENTAL AMIGO Closed strongly B-/SR- H W Lai · Y S Tsui 8 47.0 3
5 0 ONE STEP AHEAD Closed strongly J Moreira · C W Chang 2 4.2 3-1/4
6 0 FOXHUNTER WAY H/SR R Maia · K W Lui 4 8.9 4-1/2
7 0 GORGEOUS INHERITOR V M L Yeung · C H Yip 1 14.0 8-3/4
8 0 BOYS PARTY Closed strongly B-/XB L Currie · A T Millard 10 24.0 10
9 0 WONDERFUL TIGER Closed strongly H/TT M F Poon · R Gibson 11 15.0 11
10 0 SURE WIN WIN B C L Chau · T P Yung 6 13.0 12-3/4
11 0 NOBODY KNOWS H T Mo · L Ho 5 69.0 21
— 0 NOBLE MAN A Badel · K L Man — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-07-06 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. GO FOR TEA, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 2, with MISTER ARM second and FLASH FAMOUS third. The winner led throughout. The 3.7 favourite FLASH FAMOUS finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GO FOR TEA—2. MISTER ARM+2L3. FLASH FAMOUS+3L4. ORIENTAL AMIGO+3L5. ONE STEP AHEAD+3.25L6. FOXHUNTER WAY+4.5L7. GORGEOUS INHERITOR+8.75L8. BOYS PARTY+10L9. WONDERFUL TIGER+11L10. SURE WIN WIN+12.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick ONE STEP AHEAD (28.8%) finished 5th — the winner GO FOR TEA was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 ONE STEP AHEAD 28.8% 3.48 5
2 0 GO FOR TEA 19.3% 5.17 1
3 0 FOXHUNTER WAY 10.5% 9.49 6
4 0 BOYS PARTY 9.2% 10.85 8
5 0 GORGEOUS INHERITOR 7.3% 13.75 7
6 0 MISTER ARM 6.1% 16.38 2
7 0 FLASH FAMOUS 6.0% 16.65 3
8 0 SURE WIN WIN 5.3% 18.96 10
9 0 NOBODY KNOWS 3.0% 33.16 11
10 0 WONDERFUL TIGER 2.9% 34.79 9
11 0 ORIENTAL AMIGO 1.6% 63.33 4
ONE STEP AHEADGO FOR TEA — wonFOXHUNTER WAYBOYS PARTYGORGEOUS INHERITORMISTER ARMFLASH FAMOUSSURE WIN WINNOBODY KNOWSWONDERFUL TIGERORIENTAL AMIGO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 48.5

PLACE

1 20

6 14.5

7 25

QUINELLA

1,7 280

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 42.5

1,7 116

6,7 62

FORECAST

1,7 514

TIERCE

1,7,6 2,183

TRIO

1,6,7 363

FIRST 4

1,6,7,11 3,705

QUARTET

1,7,6,11 50,924

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

7/1 156

7/7 94

3 PICK 1

A2 32.5

A1 —

A3 —