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Happy Valley · 2022-07-06 · 19:46

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course A 11 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2022-07-06 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. GO FOR TEA, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 2, with MISTER ARM second and FLASH FAMOUS third. The winner led throughout. The 3.7 favourite FLASH FAMOUS finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.40.75
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 GO FOR TEA Wire to wire 1.40.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor 12 4.8 2
2 7 MISTER ARM M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 9 9.9 2
3 6 FLASH FAMOUS Closed strongly B/TT B Shinn · C H Yip 3 3.7 3
4 11 ORIENTAL AMIGO Closed strongly B-/SR- H W Lai · Y S Tsui 8 47.0 3
5 8 ONE STEP AHEAD Closed strongly J Moreira · C W Chang 2 4.2 3-1/4
6 3 FOXHUNTER WAY H/SR R Maia · K W Lui 4 8.9 4-1/2
7 12 GORGEOUS INHERITOR V M L Yeung · C H Yip 1 14.0 8-3/4
8 5 BOYS PARTY Closed strongly B-/XB L Currie · A T Millard 10 24.0 10
9 10 WONDERFUL TIGER Closed strongly H/TT M F Poon · R Gibson 11 15.0 11
10 2 SURE WIN WIN B C L Chau · T P Yung 6 13.0 12-3/4
11 4 NOBODY KNOWS H T Mo · L Ho 5 69.0 21
9 NOBLE MAN A Badel · K L Man

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GO FOR TEA2. MISTER ARM+2L3. FLASH FAMOUS+3L4. ORIENTAL AMIGO+3L5. ONE STEP AHEAD+3.25L6. FOXHUNTER WAY+4.5L7. GORGEOUS INHERITOR+8.75L8. BOYS PARTY+10L9. WONDERFUL TIGER+11L10. SURE WIN WIN+12.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick ONE STEP AHEAD (28.8%) finished 5th — the winner GO FOR TEA was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 ONE STEP AHEAD 28.8% 3.48 5
2 1 GO FOR TEA 19.3% 5.17 1
3 3 FOXHUNTER WAY 10.5% 9.49 6
4 5 BOYS PARTY 9.2% 10.85 8
5 12 GORGEOUS INHERITOR 7.3% 13.75 7
6 7 MISTER ARM 6.1% 16.38 2
7 6 FLASH FAMOUS 6.0% 16.65 3
8 2 SURE WIN WIN 5.3% 18.96 10
9 4 NOBODY KNOWS 3.0% 33.16 11
10 10 WONDERFUL TIGER 2.9% 34.79 9
11 11 ORIENTAL AMIGO 1.6% 63.33 4
ONE STEP AHEADGO FOR TEA — wonFOXHUNTER WAYBOYS PARTYGORGEOUS INHERITORMISTER ARMFLASH FAMOUSSURE WIN WINNOBODY KNOWSWONDERFUL TIGERORIENTAL AMIGO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 48.5

PLACE

1 20

6 14.5

7 25

QUINELLA

1,7 280

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 42.5

1,7 116

6,7 62

FORECAST

1,7 514

TIERCE

1,7,6 2,183

TRIO

1,6,7 363

FIRST 4

1,6,7,11 3,705

QUARTET

1,7,6,11 50,924

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

7/1 156

7/7 94

3 PICK 1

A3

A1

A2 32.5