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Happy Valley · 2022-07-06 · 21:46

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2022-07-06 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. BIG TWO, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-1/2, with FREE FOAL second and ICE LEGEND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.40.24
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 BIG TWO Closed strongly H/SR/XB 1.40.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Whyte 1 3.0 1-1/2
2 9 FREE FOAL Closed strongly V L Ferraris · F C Lor 7 40.0 1-1/2
3 2 ICE LEGEND Closed strongly H/BO1/TT H Bentley · T P Yung 2 14.0 1-1/2
4 6 MY INTELLIGENT Led early TT M Chadwick · L Ho 6 7.1 2
5 10 CHARIZARD Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · A T Millard 12 18.0 2-1/4
6 12 AMAZING NEWS Closed strongly P/XB M L Yeung · C Fownes 4 11.0 2-1/2
7 3 EVER LAUGH B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 8 38.0 2-3/4
8 5 EVER FORCE B C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 5 21.0 3-1/2
9 8 SUNNY DELIGHT B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 3 3.4 3-1/2
10 1 FEARLESS FIRE Closed strongly XB C L Chau · D A Hayes 9 50.0 4-1/4
11 7 OUR CREED V B Shinn · K H Ting 10 12.0 4-1/4
12 11 VITRALITE XB A Badel · D J Hall 11 29.0 8-3/4
0 ANGELS HUNTER R Maia · P O'Sullivan

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BIG TWO2. FREE FOAL+1.5L3. ICE LEGEND+1.5L4. MY INTELLIGENT+2L5. CHARIZARD+2.25L6. AMAZING NEWS+2.5L7. EVER LAUGH+2.75L8. EVER FORCE+3.5L9. SUNNY DELIGHT+3.5L10. FEARLESS FIRE+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick BIG TWO (24.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 BIG TWO 24.6% 4.06 1
2 8 SUNNY DELIGHT 20.8% 4.81 9
3 7 OUR CREED 9.5% 10.49 11
4 12 AMAZING NEWS 8.0% 12.50 6
5 10 CHARIZARD 7.1% 14.12 5
6 6 MY INTELLIGENT 6.2% 16.16 4
7 11 VITRALITE 5.5% 18.06 12
8 9 FREE FOAL 4.7% 21.16 2
9 5 EVER FORCE 4.5% 22.10 8
10 1 FEARLESS FIRE 3.3% 30.03 10
11 2 ICE LEGEND 3.1% 32.45 3
12 3 EVER LAUGH 2.6% 39.13 7
BIG TWO — wonSUNNY DELIGHTOUR CREEDAMAZING NEWSCHARIZARDMY INTELLIGENTVITRALITEFREE FOALEVER FORCEFEARLESS FIREICE LEGENDEVER LAUGH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 30.5

PLACE

2 40.5

4 14.5

9 95

QUINELLA

4,9 692

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 84.5

2,9 722

4,9 206

FORECAST

4,9 1,098

TIERCE

4,9,2 12,534

TRIO

2,4,9 2,664

FIRST 4

2,4,6,9 3,449

QUARTET

4,9,2,6 74,178

All pools (4 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

6,7,10/2,4,9 553,470

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 16

A3

6TH DOUBLE

7/4 143

7/9 416.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,4,6/6,7,10/Any Combination 66,886