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Happy Valley · 2022-07-06 · 21:16

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2022-07-06 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. COMPASSION SUPER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K L Man, won by 1-1/4, with TRIUMPHANT RETURN second and YOUNG VICTORY third. The 3.2 favourite DOUBLE SHOW finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.10.10
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 COMPASSION SUPER 1.10.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K L Man 7 4.6 1-1/4
2 6 TRIUMPHANT RETURN H-/XB M Chadwick · F C Lor 3 30.0 1-1/4
3 10 YOUNG VICTORY TT M F Poon · W Y So 5 7.7 1-1/2
4 8 DOUBLE SHOW B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 1 3.2 1-1/2
5 12 OUR CLASS ACT P-/H H W Lai · Y S Tsui 6 95.0 1-3/4
6 2 LESLIE B J Moreira · P F Yiu 12 4.6 2
7 4 HARDLY SWEARS C Y Ho · K H Ting 11 10.0 2-3/4
8 1 ROYAL PRIDE V/TT C Wong · C Fownes 4 11.0 3
9 3 SPICY GRILL B/TT K H Chan · K W Lui 10 18.0 3
10 11 ENCORE TT A Badel · C S Shum 8 62.0 6-1/4
11 9 BRILLIANT EIGHT H T Mo · Y S Tsui 2 51.0 6-1/4
12 5 HAPPY HERO B R Maia · C H Yip 9 34.0 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. COMPASSION SUPER2. TRIUMPHANT RETURN+1.25L3. YOUNG VICTORY+1.5L4. DOUBLE SHOW+1.5L5. OUR CLASS ACT+1.75L6. LESLIE+2L7. HARDLY SWEARS+2.75L8. ROYAL PRIDE+3L9. SPICY GRILL+3L10. ENCORE+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick LESLIE (24.5%) finished 6th — the winner COMPASSION SUPER was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 LESLIE 24.5% 4.08 6
2 8 DOUBLE SHOW 21.4% 4.67 4
3 7 COMPASSION SUPER 13.4% 7.47 1
4 10 YOUNG VICTORY 9.3% 10.78 3
5 1 ROYAL PRIDE 8.1% 12.42 8
6 3 SPICY GRILL 7.0% 14.25 9
7 4 HARDLY SWEARS 4.9% 20.42 7
8 5 HAPPY HERO 4.2% 23.62 12
9 11 ENCORE 2.6% 38.31 10
10 6 TRIUMPHANT RETURN 2.2% 46.22 2
11 12 OUR CLASS ACT 1.7% 58.33 5
12 9 BRILLIANT EIGHT 0.7% 135.03 11
LESLIEDOUBLE SHOWCOMPASSION SUPER — wonYOUNG VICTORYROYAL PRIDESPICY GRILLHARDLY SWEARSHAPPY HEROENCORETRIUMPHANT RETURNOUR CLASS ACTBRILLIANT EIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 46.5

PLACE

6 81.5

7 18.5

10 23.5

QUINELLA

6,7 994.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 266.5

6,10 322.5

7,10 61.5

FORECAST

7,6 1,154

TIERCE

7,6,10 8,206

TRIO

6,7,10 1,984

FIRST 4

6,7,8,10 951

QUARTET

7,6,10,8 26,753

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 25

A3

A1

5TH DOUBLE

6/6 260

6/7 267