Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2022-07-06 · 20:46

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 11 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2022-07-06 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WIND SPEEDER, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 1/2, with HARMONY N HOME second and GEM OF SOUTH CHINA third. The 4.5 favourite LORIZ finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.09.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 WIND SPEEDER 1.09.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 4 5.2 1/2
2 3 HARMONY N HOME H Bentley · C S Shum 3 5.7 1/2
3 4 GEM OF SOUTH CHINA M L Yeung · K H Ting 1 24.0 1-1/2
4 10 TOUCH FAITH Z Purton · J Size 2 9.9 2
5 2 FAST PACE H/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 5 18.0 2
6 7 LORIZ V- L Hewitson · P F Yiu 8 4.5 2-1/4
7 1 TRIPLE TRIPLE CP/TT B Shinn · F C Lor 11 8.7 3-1/4
8 11 ISLAND SURPRISE B2/TT A Badel · K L Man 7 5.4 5-3/4
9 5 WIN WIN CHARITY H1/XB1/TT1 R Maia · K W Lui 6 53.0 6-3/4
10 9 NOIR RIDER B C L Chau · T P Yung 10 38.0 7-1/2
11 8 FARSHAD CP J Moreira · Y S Tsui 9 10.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WIND SPEEDER2. HARMONY N HOME+0.5L3. GEM OF SOUTH CHINA+1.5L4. TOUCH FAITH+2L5. FAST PACE+2L6. LORIZ+2.25L7. TRIPLE TRIPLE+3.25L8. ISLAND SURPRISE+5.75L9. WIN WIN CHARITY+6.75L10. NOIR RIDER+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick TOUCH FAITH (15.4%) finished 4th — the winner WIND SPEEDER was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 TOUCH FAITH 15.4% 6.48 4
2 3 HARMONY N HOME 14.1% 7.07 2
3 8 FARSHAD 13.8% 7.23 11
4 11 ISLAND SURPRISE 11.6% 8.65 8
5 6 WIND SPEEDER 11.3% 8.83 1
6 1 TRIPLE TRIPLE 8.8% 11.33 7
7 7 LORIZ 8.3% 12.00 6
8 5 WIN WIN CHARITY 5.9% 17.05 9
9 2 FAST PACE 4.3% 23.35 5
10 4 GEM OF SOUTH CHINA 4.1% 24.14 3
11 9 NOIR RIDER 2.2% 44.72 10
TOUCH FAITHHARMONY N HOMEFARSHADISLAND SURPRISEWIND SPEEDER — wonTRIPLE TRIPLELORIZWIN WIN CHARITYFAST PACEGEM OF SOUTH CHINANOIR RIDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 52.5

PLACE

3 19

4 77.5

6 19.5

QUINELLA

3,6 149

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 300

3,6 47.5

4,6 318.5

FORECAST

6,3 275

TIERCE

6,3,4 6,655

TRIO

3,4,6 1,267

FIRST 4

3,4,6,10 2,065

QUARTET

6,3,4,10 41,691

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,9/3,4,6 10,020

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 27.5

4TH DOUBLE

9/3 94.5

9/6 691