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Sha Tin · 2022-07-16 · 17:18

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2022-07-16 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY SWEYNESSE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K L Man, won by 1-1/2, with REWARDING TOGETHER second and BE READY third. Victory came as the 3.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 LUCKY SWEYNESSE 1.08.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K L Man 10 3.5 1-1/2
2 7 REWARDING TOGETHER B/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 9 8.7 1-1/2
3 8 BE READY V C Y Ho · F C Lor 4 16.0 2-3/4
4 1 TRILLION WIN B A Badel · K L Man 12 9.3 2-3/4
5 12 CZARSON CP-/B2/TT V Borges · P F Yiu 7 24.0 3-1/2
6 10 JUMBO FORTUNE H/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 1 4.5 4-1/2
7 9 MASTER DELIGHT B K Teetan · J Size 8 18.0 4-3/4
8 3 VOYAGE WARRIOR L Hewitson · P F Yiu 2 6.3 5
9 2 BLAZE WARRIOR B/TT C L Chau · J Size 3 9.3 5-1/4
10 11 SEIZING THE MOMENT B M F Poon · J Size 5 36.0 5-1/2
11 4 GRATEFUL HEART CP/TT H Bentley · C S Shum 11 87.0 10
12 5 LUCKY MORE CP/XB K C Leung · C S Shum 6 38.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY SWEYNESSE2. REWARDING TOGETHER+1.5L3. BE READY+2.75L4. TRILLION WIN+2.75L5. CZARSON+3.5L6. JUMBO FORTUNE+4.5L7. MASTER DELIGHT+4.75L8. VOYAGE WARRIOR+5L9. BLAZE WARRIOR+5.25L10. SEIZING THE MOMENT+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick JUMBO FORTUNE (35.5%) finished 6th — the winner LUCKY SWEYNESSE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 JUMBO FORTUNE 35.5% 2.82 6
2 6 LUCKY SWEYNESSE 24.1% 4.14 1
3 7 REWARDING TOGETHER 7.3% 13.65 2
4 8 BE READY 6.7% 14.87 3
5 1 TRILLION WIN 5.0% 20.19 4
6 2 BLAZE WARRIOR 4.7% 21.43 9
7 3 VOYAGE WARRIOR 4.5% 22.28 8
8 9 MASTER DELIGHT 3.2% 30.88 7
9 11 SEIZING THE MOMENT 3.2% 31.51 10
10 5 LUCKY MORE 2.5% 40.74 12
11 12 CZARSON 2.3% 43.12 5
12 4 GRATEFUL HEART 1.0% 100.80 11
JUMBO FORTUNELUCKY SWEYNESSE — wonREWARDING TOGETHERBE READYTRILLION WINBLAZE WARRIORVOYAGE WARRIORMASTER DELIGHTSEIZING THE MOMENTLUCKY MORECZARSONGRATEFUL HEART

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 35

PLACE

6 15.5

7 27.5

8 46.5

QUINELLA

6,7 152

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 56.5

6,8 105.5

7,8 179

FORECAST

6,7 266

TIERCE

6,7,8 1,991

TRIO

6,7,8 572

FIRST 4

1,6,7,8 1,088

QUARTET

6,7,8,1 14,895

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 20

A3

A2

9TH DOUBLE

13/6 76

13/7 35.5